IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i8p2077-d1636843.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Microgrid Reliability Incorporating Uncertainty in Weather and Equipment Failure

Author

Listed:
  • Sakthivelnathan Nallainathan

    (School of Engineering and Energy, Murdoch University, Perth, WA 6150, Australia)

  • Ali Arefi

    (School of Engineering and Energy, Murdoch University, Perth, WA 6150, Australia)

  • Christopher Lund

    (School of Engineering and Energy, Murdoch University, Perth, WA 6150, Australia)

  • Ali Mehrizi-Sani

    (The Bradley Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA)

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power generation are key contributors to the integration of renewable energy into modern power systems. The intermittent and variable nature of these renewables has a substantial impact on the power system’s reliability. In time-series simulation studies, inaccuracies in solar irradiation and wind speed parameters can lead to unreliable evaluations of system reliability, ultimately resulting in flawed decision making regarding the investment and operation of energy systems. This paper investigates the reliability deviation due to modeling uncertainties in a 100% renewable-based system. This study employs two methods to assess and contrast the reliability of a standalone microgrid (SMG) system in order to achieve this goal: (i) random uncertainty within a selected confidence interval and (ii) splitting the cumulative distribution function (CDF) into five regions of equal probability. In this study, an SMG system is modeled, and loss of load probability (LOLP) is evaluated in both approaches. Six different sensitivity analysis studies, including annual load demand growth, are performed. The results from the simulations demonstrate that the suggested methods can estimate the reliability of a microgrid powered by renewable energy sources, as well as its probability of reaching certain levels of reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakthivelnathan Nallainathan & Ali Arefi & Christopher Lund & Ali Mehrizi-Sani, 2025. "Microgrid Reliability Incorporating Uncertainty in Weather and Equipment Failure," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:8:p:2077-:d:1636843
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/8/2077/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/8/2077/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shanmugarajah Vinothine & Lidula N. Widanagama Arachchige & Athula D. Rajapakse & Roshani Kaluthanthrige, 2022. "Microgrid Energy Management and Methods for Managing Forecast Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Luo, Jianing & Li, Hangxin & Wang, Shengwei, 2022. "A quantitative reliability assessment and risk quantification method for microgrids considering supply and demand uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    3. Qin, Zhilong & Li, Wenyuan & Xiong, Xiaofu, 2013. "Incorporating multiple correlations among wind speeds, photovoltaic powers and bus loads in composite system reliability evaluation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 285-294.
    4. Zhai, Xiangyu & Li, Zening & Li, Zhengmao & Xue, Yixun & Chang, Xinyue & Su, Jia & Jin, Xiaolong & Wang, Peng & Sun, Hongbin, 2025. "Risk-averse energy management for integrated electricity and heat systems considering building heating vertical imbalance: An asynchronous decentralized approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 383(C).
    5. Javier Faulin & Angel A. Juan & Sebastián Martorell & José-Emmanuel Ramírez-Márquez (ed.), 2010. "Simulation Methods for Reliability and Availability of Complex Systems," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-1-84882-213-9, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sakthivelnathan Nallainathan & Ali Arefi & Christopher Lund & Ali Mehrizi-Sani, 2025. "Allocation of Cost of Reliability to Various Customer Sectors in a Standalone Microgrid System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-23, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caixin Yan & Zhifeng Qiu, 2025. "Review of Power Market Optimization Strategies Based on Industrial Load Flexibility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-41, March.
    2. Sydney Mutale & Yong Wang & De Tian, 2025. "Optimizing Assembly Error Reduction in Wind Turbine Gearboxes Using Parallel Assembly Sequence Planning and Hybrid Particle Swarm-Bacteria Foraging Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-31, July.
    3. Yan Ma & Yumin Chen & Zhengwei Chang & Qian Li & Hongli Liu & Yang Wei, 2023. "Power Side Risk Assessment of Multi-Energy Microgrids Considering Risk Propagation between Interconnected Energy Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-13, November.
    4. Zhang, Lingzhi & Shi, Ruifeng & Ning, Jin & Jia, Limin & Lee, Kwang Y., 2025. "RAMS assessment methodology for road transport self-contained energy systems considering source-load dual uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    5. Anderson Mitterhofer Iung & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira & André Luís Marques Marcato, 2023. "A Review on Modeling Variable Renewable Energy: Complementarity and Spatial–Temporal Dependence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Cai, Baoping & Liu, Yonghong & Ma, Yunpeng & Huang, Lei & Liu, Zengkai, 2015. "A framework for the reliability evaluation of grid-connected photovoltaic systems in the presence of intermittent faults," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1308-1320.
    7. V, Gayathry & Deepa, K. & Sangeetha, S.V. Tresa & T, Porselvi & Ramprabhakar, J. & Gowtham, N., 2025. "Uncertainty analysis of different forecast models for wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    8. Kaikai Wang & Yao Wang & Jin Gao & Yan Liang & Zhenfei Ma & Hanyue Liu & Zening Li, 2025. "Multi-Objective Optimization of Energy Storage Station Configuration in Power Grids Considering the Flexibility of Thermal Load Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Arjmand, Reza & Rahimiyan, Morteza, 2016. "Statistical analysis of a competitive day-ahead market coupled with correlated wind production and electric load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 153-167.
    10. Giuseppe Rausa & Maurizio Calabrese & Ramiro Velazquez & Carolina Del-Valle-Soto & Roberto De Fazio & Paolo Visconti, 2025. "Mechanical, Thermal, and Environmental Energy Harvesting Solutions in Fully Electric and Hybrid Vehicles: Innovative Approaches and Commercial Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-54, April.
    11. Hongyan Xin & Zhengdong Wan & Yan Huang & Jinsong Zhang, 2025. "Economical Regulating Strategies Based on Enhanced EVM Model in Electric Substation Construction Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-14, July.
    12. Vasileios Kilis & Georgios Anastasiadis & Nikolaos Ploskas & Giorgos Panaras, 2025. "Optimization of Renewable-Based Multi-Energy Systems in Residential Building Design," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Guoping Huang & Qiao Shi & Wenqing Li & Qing Zhang & Junfeng Liu, 2025. "Second-Order Ripple Current Suppression Based on Virtual Impedance in the Application of Dynamic Voltage Restorer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Aslani, Mehrdad & Faraji, Jamal & Hashemi-Dezaki, Hamed & Ketabi, Abbas, 2022. "A novel clustering-based method for reliability assessment of cyber-physical microgrids considering cyber interdependencies and information transmission errors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    15. Luca Viscito & Francesco Pelella & Andrea Rega & Federico Magnea & Gerardo Maria Mauro & Alessandro Zanella & Alfonso William Mauro & Nicola Bianco, 2025. "Physical Model for the Simulation of an Air Handling Unit Employed in an Automotive Production Process: Calibration Procedure and Potential Energy Saving," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-25, April.
    16. Mohammad Hassan Tanha & Zahra Tanha & Ali Aranizadeh & Mirpouya Mirmozaffari, 2025. "Sustainable Wind Energy Security: Assessing the Impact of False Data Injection on Wind Turbine Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-27, May.
    17. Spilger, Maike & Schneider, Dennis & Weber, Christoph, 2025. "Uncertainty characterization for generation adequacy assessments – Including an application to the recent European energy crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Elinor Ginzburg-Ganz & Eden Dina Horodi & Omar Shadafny & Uri Savir & Ram Machlev & Yoash Levron, 2025. "Statistical Foundations of Generative AI for Optimal Control Problems in Power Systems: Comprehensive Review and Future Directions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-54, May.
    19. Luc Vivien Assiene Mouodo & Petros J. Axaopoulos, 2025. "Optimization and Estimation of the State of Charge of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-25, June.
    20. Stanislav Boldyryev & Oleksandr S. Ivashchuk & Goran Krajačić & Volodymyr M. Atamanyuk, 2025. "Review of Challenges in Heat Exchanger Network Development for Electrified Industrial Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-34, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:8:p:2077-:d:1636843. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.