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Generation and evaluation of space–time trajectories of photovoltaic power

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  • Golestaneh, Faranak
  • Gooi, Hoay Beng
  • Pinson, Pierre

Abstract

In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems related operational problems if and only if optimal decisions are to be made for each lead-time and each location independently of each other. However, many of these operational processes are temporally and spatially coupled, while uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation is strongly dependent in time and in space. This issue is addressed here by analysing and capturing spatio-temporal dependencies in PV generation. Multivariate predictive distributions are modelled and space–time trajectories describing the potential evolution of forecast errors through successive lead-times and locations are generated. Discrimination ability of the relevant scoring rules on performance assessment of space–time trajectories of PV generation is also studied. Finally, the advantage of taking into account space–time correlations over probabilistic and point forecasts is investigated. The empirical investigation is based on the solar PV dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom) 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Golestaneh, Faranak & Gooi, Hoay Beng & Pinson, Pierre, 2016. "Generation and evaluation of space–time trajectories of photovoltaic power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 80-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:176:y:2016:i:c:p:80-91
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.05.025
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    1. Xu, Jian & Wang, Jing & Liao, Siyang & Sun, Yuanzhang & Ke, Deping & Li, Xiong & Liu, Ji & Jiang, Yibo & Wei, Congying & Tang, Bowen, 2018. "Stochastic multi-objective optimization of photovoltaics integrated three-phase distribution network based on dynamic scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 985-996.
    2. Yan, Xingyu & Abbes, Dhaker & Francois, Bruno, 2017. "Uncertainty analysis for day ahead power reserve quantification in an urban microgrid including PV generators," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 288-297.
    3. Pinto, Rui & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Matos, Manuel A., 2017. "Multi-period flexibility forecast for low voltage prosumers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2251-2263.
    4. Bismark Singh & Bernard Knueven, 2021. "Lagrangian relaxation based heuristics for a chance-constrained optimization model of a hybrid solar-battery storage system," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 80(4), pages 965-989, August.
    5. Camal, S. & Teng, F. & Michiorri, A. & Kariniotakis, G. & Badesa, L., 2019. "Scenario generation of aggregated Wind, Photovoltaics and small Hydro production for power systems applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1396-1406.

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