IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i7p1672-d1621644.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Carbon Neutrality Goals on China’s Coal Industry: Mechanisms and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Shihua Ren

    (Science and Technology Center, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China
    School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

  • Xiaomiao Jiao

    (Science and Technology Center, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China)

  • Dezhi Zheng

    (Science and Technology Center, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China)

  • Yaning Zhang

    (Science and Technology Center, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China)

  • Heping Xie

    (Institute of Deep Earth Sciences and Green Energy, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China)

  • Rui Zhang

    (School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

China’s coal industry is reckoned as one of the topmost contributors to global carbon emissions, and as a result, poses severe challenges both to human health and climate change mitigation efforts. Achieving carbon neutrality requires thorough analyses of mechanisms driving the coal sector’s transition. This study employs a structural model to investigate the transmission pathways through/by which the “dual carbon” goals influence the coal industry, using a policy text quantification approach to assess specific carbon reduction measures. Findings reveal that the impact of the “dual carbon” target on the coal industry operates through multiple pathways. Carbon reduction policies significantly enhance technical advancements, social and economic factors, energy-saving measures, and alternative energy development, all of which indirectly affect coal supply. Notably, the pathway from coal demand to coal supply shows a high path coefficient of 1.121, far surpassing the path coefficient from factor input to coal supply, measured at 0.169. This highlights coal demand as the pivotal intermediary variable in determining the “dual carbon” target’s impact on the coal industry. While current technologies and alternative energy sources have limited immediate effects on coal supply, they hold significant potential as transformative factors in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Shihua Ren & Xiaomiao Jiao & Dezhi Zheng & Yaning Zhang & Heping Xie & Rui Zhang, 2025. "Impact of Carbon Neutrality Goals on China’s Coal Industry: Mechanisms and Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:7:p:1672-:d:1621644
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/7/1672/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/7/1672/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhu, Hongtao & Cao, Shuang & Su, Zimeng & Zhuang, Yang, 2024. "China's future energy vision: Multi-scenario simulation based on energy consumption structure under dual carbon targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    2. Wang, Delu & Wang, Yadong & Huang, Ziyang & Cui, Rong, 2020. "Understanding the resilience of coal industry ecosystem to economic shocks: Influencing factors, dynamic evolution and policy suggestions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Wang, Xiaofei & Liu, Chuangeng & Chen, Shaojie & Chen, Lei & Li, Ke & Liu, Na, 2020. "Impact of coal sector’s de-capacity policy on coal price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    4. Bekun, Festus Victor, 2024. "Race to carbon neutrality in South Africa: What role does environmental technological innovation play?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 354(PA).
    5. Antimiani, Alessandro & Costantini, Valeria & Paglialunga, Elena, 2023. "Fossil fuels subsidy removal and the EU carbon neutrality policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "How to achieve the first step of the carbon-neutrality 2060 target in China: The coal substitution perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    7. Qiang Liu & Fei Teng & Chris P. Nielsen & Yuzhong Zhang & Lixin Wu, 2024. "Large methane mitigation potential through prioritized closure of gas-rich coal mines," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(6), pages 652-658, June.
    8. Feng Dong & Chang Qin & Xiaoyun Zhang & Xu Zhao & Yuling Pan & Yujin Gao & Jiao Zhu & Yangfan Li, 2021. "Towards Carbon Neutrality: The Impact of Renewable Energy Development on Carbon Emission Efficiency," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Manabu Kuroki & Taiki Tezuka, 2024. "The estimated causal effect on the variance based on the front-door criterion in Gaussian linear structural equation models: an unbiased estimator with the exact variance," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1285-1308, May.
    10. Cui, Herui & Wei, Pengbang, 2017. "Analysis of thermal coal pricing and the coal price distortion in China from the perspective of market forces," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 148-154.
    11. Tan, Xiujie & Sun, Qian & Wang, Meiji & Se Cheong, Tsun & Yan Shum, Wai & Huang, Jinpeng, 2022. "Assessing the effects of emissions trading systems on energy consumption and energy mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    12. Weiwei Wang, 2023. "Integrated Assessment of Economic Supply and Environmental Effects of Biomass Co-Firing in Coal Power Plants: A Case Study of Jiangsu, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Zhenguo Yan & Huachuan Wang & Huicong Xu & Jingdao Fan & Weixi Ding, 2024. "Construction and Application of an Intelligent Prediction Model for the Coal Pillar Width of a Fully Mechanized Caving Face Based on the Fusion of Multiple Physical Parameters," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Shanker, M. & Hu, M. Y. & Hung, M. S., 1996. "Effect of data standardization on neural network training," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 385-397, August.
    15. Shuao Sun & Sheeraz Ahmed, 2024. "Navigating and Overcoming Barriers to Digital Energy Transition for Carbon Neutrality in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-23, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Tiantian & Wu, Fei & Dickinson, David & Zhao, Wanli, 2024. "Energy price bubbles and extreme price movements: Evidence from China's coal market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Lijuan Zhang & Tatyana Ponomarenko, 2023. "Directions for Sustainable Development of China’s Coal Industry in the Post-Epidemic Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-32, April.
    3. Hasdi Aimon & Anggi Putri Kurniadi & Sri Ulfa Sentosa & Nurhayati Abd Rahman, 2023. "Production, Consumption, Export and Carbon Emission for Coal Commodities: Cases of Indonesia and Australia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 484-492, September.
    4. Zhang, Yanfang & Shi, Xunpeng & Qian, Xiangyan & Chen, Sai & Nie, Rui, 2021. "Macroeconomic effect of energy transition to carbon neutrality: Evidence from China's coal capacity cut policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    5. Shiqiu Zhu & Yuanying Chi & Kaiye Gao & Yahui Chen & Rui Peng, 2022. "Analysis of Influencing Factors of Thermal Coal Price," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Lijing Zhang & Shuke Fu & Jiali Tian & Jiachao Peng, 2022. "A Review of Energy Industry Chain and Energy Supply Chain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Wang, Siquan & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Performance linkage in renewable energy supply chain: A comparative analysis with coal power and the entire industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Jia, Zhijie & Wen, Shiyan & Sun, Zao, 2022. "Current relationship between coal consumption and the economic development and China's future carbon mitigation policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    9. Matteo Picozzi & Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino, 2021. "Forecasting the Preparatory Phase of Induced Earthquakes by Recurrent Neural Network," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, January.
    10. Ma, Hongchao & Zhang, Haonan, 2024. "Can green energy expansion develop the mineral resource market in East Asia?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Wanqiu Zhang & Zeru Jiang & Huayang Dai & Gang Lin & Kun Liu & Ruiwen Yan & Yuanhao Zhu, 2024. "Modelling Multi-Scenario Ecological Network Patterns and Dynamic Spatial Conservation Priorities in Mining Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Luqman Luqman & Sarifuddin Madenda & Prihandoko Prihandoko, 2023. "Polynomial Regression Model Utilization to Determine Potential Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) Calories in Indonesia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-14, October.
    13. Yan, Peiliang & Fan, Weijun & Han, Yu & Ding, Hongbing & Wen, Chuang & Elbarghthi, Anas F.A. & Yang, Yan, 2023. "Leaf-vein bionic fin configurations for enhanced thermal energy storage performance of phase change materials in smart heating and cooling systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    14. Luis Alberto Geraldo-Campos & Juan J. Soria & Tamara Pando-Ezcurra, 2022. "Machine Learning for Credit Risk in the Reactive Peru Program: A Comparison of the Lasso and Ridge Regression Models," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, July.
    15. Shuguang Liu & Jiayi Wang & Yin Long, 2023. "Research into the Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Technological Innovation in China’s Natural Gas Industry from the Perspective of Energy Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-34, April.
    16. Yan, Lei & Tian, Wei & Wang, Hong & Hao, Xing & Li, Zuyi, 2023. "Robust event detection for residential load disaggregation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    17. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Pradhan, Basanta K. & Dong, Kangyin & Yu, Yan-Yan & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2024. "An economy-wide impacts of multiple mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Yan Li & Kailu Zhang & Bojiao Mu & Xinran Mo, 2024. "The long-term effects of transformation and upgrading policies on the market performance of China's coal-fire power generation industry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(7), pages 1-38, October.
    19. Elfarra, Barakat & Yasmeen, Rizwana & Shah, Wasi Ul Hassan, 2024. "The impact of energy security, energy mix, technological advancement, trade openness, and political stability on energy efficiency: Evidence from Arab countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    20. Aleksandr Kulikov & Pavel Ilyushin & Anton Loskutov & Konstantin Suslov & Sergey Filippov, 2022. "WSPRT Methods for Improving Power System Automation Devices in the Conditions of Distributed Generation Sources Operation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:7:p:1672-:d:1621644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.