Evaluation of Technological Alternatives for the Energy Transition of Coal-Fired Power Plants, with a Multi-Criteria Approach

This paper investigates technological pathways for the conversion of coal-fired power plants toward sustainable energy sources, using an integrated multi-criteria decision-making approach that combines Proknow-C, AHP, and PROMETHEE. Eight alternatives were identified: full conversion to natural gas, full conversion to biomass, coal and natural gas hybridization, coal and biomass hybridization, electricity and hydrogen cogeneration, coal and solar energy hybridization, post-combustion carbon capture systems, and decommissioning with subsequent reuse. The analysis combined bibliographic data (26 scientific articles and 13 patents) with surveys from 14 energy experts, using Total Decision version 1.2.1041.0 and Visual PROMETHEE version 1.1.0.0 software tools. Based on six criteria (environmental, structural, technical, technological, economic, and social), the most viable option was full conversion to natural gas (ϕ = +0.0368), followed by coal and natural gas hybridization (ϕ = +0.0257), and coal and solar hybridization (ϕ = +0.0124). These alternatives emerged as the most balanced in terms of emissions reduction, infrastructure reuse, and cost efficiency. In contrast, decommissioning (ϕ = −0.0578) and carbon capture systems (ϕ = −0.0196) were less favorable. This study proposes a structured framework for strategic energy planning that supports a just energy transition and contributes to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 and 13, highlighting the need for public policies that enhance the competitiveness and scalability of sustainable alternatives.