The Carbon Reduction Contribution of Battery Electric Vehicles: Evidence from China

The transition to passenger car electrification is a crucial step in China’s strategic efforts to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. However, previous research has not considered the variances in vehicle models. Hence, this study aims to fill this gap by comparing the carbon emission reduction and economic feasibility of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the Chinese market, taking into account different powertrains, vehicle segments, classes, and driving ranges. Next, the study identifies the most cost-effective BEV within each market segment, employing life-cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis methods. Moreover, at different levels of technological development, we construct three low-carbon measures, including electricity decarbonization (ED), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), and vehicle lightweight (LW), to quantify the emission mitigation potentials from different carbon reduction pathways. The findings indicate that BEVs achieve an average carbon reduction of about 31.85% compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), demonstrating a significant advantage in carbon reduction. However, BEVs are not economically competitive. The total life cycle cost of BEVs is 1.04–1.68 times higher than that of ICEVs, with infrastructure costs accounting for 18.8–57.8% of the vehicle’ s life cycle costs. In terms of cost-effectiveness, different models yield different results, with sedans generally outperforming sport utility vehicles (SUVs). Among sedans, both A-class and B-class sedans have already reached a point of cost-effectiveness, with the BEV400 emerging as the optimal choice. In low-carbon emission reduction scenarios, BEVs could achieve carbon reduction potentials of up to 45.3%, 14.9%, and 9.0% in the ED, EEI, and LW scenarios, respectively. Thus, electricity decarbonization exhibits the highest potential for mitigating carbon emissions, followed by energy efficiency improvement and vehicle lightweight. There are obvious differences in the stages of impact among different measures. The ED measure primarily impacts the waste treatment process (WTP) stage, followed by the vehicle cycle, while the EEI measure only affects the WTP stage. The LW measure has a complex impact on emission reductions, as the carbon reductions achieved in the WTP stage are partially offset by the increased carbon emissions in the vehicle cycle.