IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i12p3129-d1679008.html

Research on Different Energy Transition Pathway Analysis and Low-Carbon Electricity Development: A Case Study of an Energy System in Inner Mongolia

Author

Listed:
  • Boyi Li

    (Graduate School of Environmental Engineering, The University of Kitakyushu, Fukuoka 808-0135, Japan)

  • Richao Cong

    (Graduate School of Cultural Policy and Management, Shizuoka University of Art and Culture, Shizuoka 430-8533, Japan)

  • Toru Matsumoto

    (Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, The University of Kitakyushu, Fukuoka 808-0135, Japan)

  • Yajuan Li

    (Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, The University of Kitakyushu, Fukuoka 808-0135, Japan)

Abstract

To achieve carbon neutrality targets in the power sector, regions with rich coal and renewable energy resources are facing unprecedented pressure. This paper explores the decarbonization pathway in the power sector in Inner Mongolia, China, under different energy transition scenarios based on the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. This includes renewable energy expansion, carbon capture and storage (CCS) applications, demand response, and economic regulation scenarios. Subsequently, a combination of the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and Slack-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis (SBM-DEA) model was developed to investigate the influencing factors and power generation efficiency in low-carbon electricity. The results revealed that this region emphasizes first developing renewable energy and improving the carbon and green electricity market and then accelerating CCS technology. Its carbon emissions are among the lowest, at about 77.29 million tons, but the cost could reach CNY 229.8 billion in 2060. We also found that the influencing factors of carbon productivity, low-carbon electricity structures, and carbon emissions significantly affected low-carbon electricity generation; their cumulative contribution rate is 367–588%, 155–399%, and −189–−737%, respectively. Regarding low-carbon electricity efficiency, the demand response scenario is the lowest at about 0.71; other scenarios show similar efficiency values. This value could be improved by optimizing the energy consumption structure and the installed capacity configuration.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyi Li & Richao Cong & Toru Matsumoto & Yajuan Li, 2025. "Research on Different Energy Transition Pathway Analysis and Low-Carbon Electricity Development: A Case Study of an Energy System in Inner Mongolia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:12:p:3129-:d:1679008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/12/3129/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/12/3129/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Jing-Li & Xu, Mao & Li, Fengyu & Yang, Lin & Zhang, Xian, 2018. "Carbon capture and storage (CCS) retrofit potential of coal-fired power plants in China: The technology lock-in and cost optimization perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 326-334.
    2. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    3. Bo Wang & Limao Wang & Shuai Zhong & Ning Xiang & Qiushi Qu, 2022. "Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Mousavi, Babak & Lopez, Neil Stephen A. & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel & Chiu, Anthony S.F. & Blesl, Markus, 2017. "Driving forces of Iran's CO2 emissions from energy consumption: An LMDI decomposition approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 804-814.
    5. Haifeng Huang & Tao Wang, 2017. "The Total-Factor Energy Efficiency of Regions in China: Based on Three-Stage SBM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Kahrl, Fredrich & Lin, Jiang & Liu, Xu & Hu, Junfeng, 2021. "Sunsetting coal power in China," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt4337x7x9, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    7. Wang, Han & Zhang, Jiawei & Wang, Peng & Zhang, Ning, 2025. "The role of demand-side flexibilities on low-carbon transition in power system: A case study of West Inner Mongolia, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    8. Sheng-Wen Tseng, 2019. "Analysis of Energy-Related Carbon Emissions in Inner Mongolia, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Pang, Yuexia & He, Yongxiu & Jiao, Jie & Cai, Hua, 2020. "Power load demand response potential of secondary sectors in China: The case of western Inner Mongolia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    10. Tone, Kaoru, 2001. "A slacks-based measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 498-509, May.
    11. Li, Jialin & Hu, Yu & Chi, Yuanying & Liu, Dunnan & Yang, Shuxia & Gao, Zhiyuan & Chen, Yuetong, 2024. "Analysis on the synergy between markets of electricity, carbon, and tradable green certificates in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    12. Zhenyu Zhuo & Ershun Du & Ning Zhang & Chris P. Nielsen & Xi Lu & Jinyu Xiao & Jiawei Wu & Chongqing Kang, 2022. "Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Cong, Richao & Abe, Mirei & Fujiyama, Atsushi & Matsumoto, Toru, 2025. "An intelligent-based framework for urban energy transition and sustainable development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    14. Yongrok Choi & Yanni Yu & Hyoung Seok Lee, 2018. "A Study on the Sustainable Performance of the Steel Industry in Korea Based on SBM-DEA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hao He & Wei He & Jun Guo & Kang Wu & Weizhe Zhao & Zijing Wan, 2025. "Research on New Energy Power Generation Forecasting Method Based on Bi-LSTM and Transformer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-25, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shih-Heng Yu & Ying-Sin Lin & Jia-Li Zhang & Chia-Shan Hsu & Shu-Min Cheng, 2025. "Incorporating Carbon Fees into the Efficiency Evaluation of Taiwan’s Steel Industry Using Data Envelopment Analysis with Negative Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Zhou, Wenlong & Fan, Wenrong & Lan, Rujia & Su, Wenlong & Fan, Jing-Li, 2025. "Retrofitted CCS technologies enhance economy, security, and equity in achieving carbon zero in power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 378(PA).
    3. Yongrok Choi & Hua Wen & Hyoungsuk Lee & Hang Yang, 2020. "Measuring Operational Performance of Major Chinese Airports Based on SBM-DEA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Yongrok Choi & Fan Yang & Hyoungsuk Lee, 2020. "On the Unbalanced Atmospheric Environmental Performance of Major Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Lou, Jiehong & Yu, Sha & Cui, Ryna Yiyun & Miller, Andy & Hultman, Nathan, 2025. "A provincial analysis on wind and solar investment needs towards China's carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 378(PA).
    6. Vladimír Baláž & Eduard Nežinský & Tomáš Jeck & Richard Filčák, 2020. "Energy and Emission Efficiency of the Slovak Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Lee, Hyoungsuk & Choi, Yongrok & Seo, Hyungjun, 2020. "Comparative analysis of the R&D investment performance of Korean local governments," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Jinkai Li & Jingjing Ma & Wei Wei, 2020. "Analysis and Evaluation of the Regional Characteristics of Carbon Emission Efficiency for China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-22, April.
    9. Yanhong Liu & Xinjian Huang & Weiliang Chen, 2019. "Threshold Effect of High-Tech Industrial Scale on Green Development—Evidence from Yangtze River Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Cai, Qiran & Qing, Jing & Xu, Qingyang & Zhong, Chaoyun & Xue, Mei-Mei & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2026. "Incremental techno-economic benefits of interregional generation-grid-load-storage coordination in China's power system decarbonization: A long-term evolutionary and provincial heterogeneity analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 209(PB).
    11. Wenwen Li & Shuo Fang & Chenran Yan & Qian Li & Weifeng Gong & Chuanhui Wang, 2026. "Impact of corporate financialization on carbon cost efficiency of thermal power enterprises in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 2595-2630, January.
    12. Xiaoqing Wang & Qiuming Wu & Salman Majeed & Donghao Sun, 2018. "Fujian’s Industrial Eco-Efficiency: Evaluation Based on SBM and the Empirical Analysis of lnfluencing Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    13. Zhiyu Fang & Ling Jiang & Zhong Fang, 2021. "Does Economic Policy Intervention Inhibit the Efficiency of China’s Green Energy Economy?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Wang, Jieyu & Wang, Shaojian & Li, Shijie & Feng, Kuishuang, 2019. "Coupling analysis of urbanization and energy-environment efficiency: Evidence from Guangdong province," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    15. Yang Yang & Simo Li & Zhaoxian Su & Hao Fu & Wenbin Wang & Yun Wang, 2023. "Research on the Ecological Innovation Efficiency of the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration: Measurement, Evaluation and Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-24, September.
    16. Wen-Min Lu & Qian Long Kweh & Chung-Wei Wang, 2021. "Integration and application of rough sets and data envelopment analysis for assessments of the investment trusts industry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 296(1), pages 163-194, January.
    17. Franz R. Hahn, 2007. "Determinants of Bank Efficiency in Europe. Assessing Bank Performance Across Markets," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31499.
    18. Alperovych, Yan & Hübner, Georges & Lobet, Fabrice, 2015. "How does governmental versus private venture capital backing affect a firm's efficiency? Evidence from Belgium," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 508-525.
    19. Chen, Ya & Pan, Yongbin & Liu, Haoxiang & Wu, Huaqing & Deng, Guangwei, 2023. "Efficiency analysis of Chinese universities with shared inputs: An aggregated two-stage network DEA approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. Zhang, Chonghui & Bai, Chen & Su, Weihua & Balezentis, Tomas, 2024. "The centralised data envelopment analysis model integrated with cost information and utility theory for power price setting under carbon peak strategy at the firm-level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:12:p:3129-:d:1679008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.