Socioeconomic Determinants of Biomass Energy Transition in China: A Multiregional Spatial Analysis for Sustainable Development

This study investigates the socioeconomic determinants governing biomass energy transitions in rural areas of Eastern China through a multiregional spatial analysis. Drawing on time-series data from national and local statistical yearbooks, screened and processed to ensure consistency, the research analyzes evolving rural energy consumption patterns across nine cities in Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong provinces. Biomass energy potential was estimated by integrating crop production and domestic waste data with region-specific residue-to-product ratios, calorific values, and conversion efficiencies. These estimates were further spatialized through GIS-based surplus–deficit modeling to reveal regional disparities in supply–demand balance. The analysis identifies a critical income threshold, whereby lower-income regions exhibit rapid growth in energy consumption until reaching a saturation point around RMB 13,000, while higher-income areas experience continued increases in energy demand beyond the capacity of biomass resources to supply. The findings emphasize that an integrated approach, incorporating agricultural residue and domestic waste utilization, is essential for facilitating sustainable energy transitions, particularly in economically advanced regions. Furthermore, the study develops a scalable framework that integrates socioeconomic and spatial variables into biomass energy planning, underscoring the need for regional transition strategies to address not only resource endowments but also demographic mobility, urbanization dynamics, and income-driven consumption behaviors.