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An Efficient Methodology to Identify Relevant Multiple Contingencies and Their Probability for Long-Term Resilience Studies

Author

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  • Emanuele Ciapessoni

    (Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico—RSE S.p.A., 20134 Milano, Italy)

  • Diego Cirio

    (Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico—RSE S.p.A., 20134 Milano, Italy)

  • Andrea Pitto

    (Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico—RSE S.p.A., 20134 Milano, Italy)

Abstract

The selection of multiple contingency scenarios is a key task to perform resilience-oriented long-term planning analyses. However, the identification of relevant multiple contingencies may easily lead to combinatorial explosion issues, even for relatively small systems. This paper proposes an effective methodology for the identification of relevant multiple contingencies and their probabilities, suitable for the long-term resilience analysis of large power systems. The methodology is composed of two main pillars: (1) the clustering of lines that are more likely to fail together, to reduce the computational complexity of the analysis exploiting historical weather data and (2) the probability-based identification of multiple contingencies within each cluster, where the contingency probability is computed applying the copula theory. Tests performed on a portion of the Italian EHV transmission system confirm the validity of the clustering results compared against historical failure events. Moreover, the copula-based algorithm for contingency probability estimation passes the tests carried out on relatively large clusters with very low error tolerance. The method successfully pinpoints critical multiple contingency scenarios and their likelihoods, making it valuable for assessing power system resilience over long-term horizons in support of resilience-oriented planning activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Ciapessoni & Diego Cirio & Andrea Pitto, 2024. "An Efficient Methodology to Identify Relevant Multiple Contingencies and Their Probability for Long-Term Resilience Studies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:9:p:2028-:d:1382562
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhang, Dongdong & Li, Chunjiao & Goh, Hui Hwang & Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhu, Hongyu & Liu, Hui & Wu, Thomas, 2022. "A comprehensive overview of modeling approaches and optimal control strategies for cyber-physical resilience in power systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1383-1406.
    2. Z. I. Botev, 2017. "The normal law under linear restrictions: simulation and estimation via minimax tilting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(1), pages 125-148, January.
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