IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i4p829-d1336624.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparative Analysis between Intelligent Machine Committees and Hybrid Deep Learning with Genetic Algorithms in Energy Sector Forecasting: A Case Study on Electricity Price and Wind Speed in the Brazilian Market

Author

Listed:
  • Thiago Conte

    (Institute of Technology, Electrical Engineering, Pará State University, Belém 66075-110, Brazil)

  • Roberto Oliveira

    (Department of Computer Engineering, Federal University of Pará, Belém 66075-110, Brazil)

Abstract

Global environmental impacts such as climate change require behavior from society that aims to minimize greenhouse gas emissions. This includes the substitution of fossil fuels with other energy sources. An important aspect of efficient and sustainable management of the electricity supply in Brazil is the prediction of some variables of the national electric system (NES), such as the price of differences settlement (PLD) and wind speed for wind energy. In this context, the present study investigated two distinct forecasting approaches. The first involved the combination of deep artificial neural network techniques, long short-term memory (LSTM), and multilayer perceptron (MLP), optimized through the canonical genetic algorithm (GA). The second approach focused on machine committees including MLP, decision tree, linear regression, and support vector machine (SVM) in one committee, and MLP, LSTM, SVM, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in another. The results indicate that the hybrid AG + LSTM algorithm demonstrated the best performance for PLD, with a mean squared error (MSE) of 4.68. For wind speed, there is a MSE of 1.26. These solutions aim to contribute to the Brazilian electricity market’s decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiago Conte & Roberto Oliveira, 2024. "Comparative Analysis between Intelligent Machine Committees and Hybrid Deep Learning with Genetic Algorithms in Energy Sector Forecasting: A Case Study on Electricity Price and Wind Speed in the Brazi," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-31, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:4:p:829-:d:1336624
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/4/829/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/4/829/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shengxiang Lv & Lin Wang & Sirui Wang, 2023. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Kim Long Tran & Hoang Anh Le & Thanh Hien Nguyen & Duc Trung Nguyen, 2022. "Explainable Machine Learning for Financial Distress Prediction: Evidence from Vietnam," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-12, November.
    3. Yeojin Kim & Jin Hur, 2020. "An Ensemble Forecasting Model of Wind Power Outputs Based on Improved Statistical Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-11, March.
    4. Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E., 2019. "Review of models for integrating renewable energy in the generation expansion planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1573-1587.
    5. Julia K. Ambrosio & Bruno M. Brentan & Manuel Herrera & Edevar Luvizotto & Lubienska Ribeiro & Joaquín Izquierdo, 2019. "Committee Machines for Hourly Water Demand Forecasting in Water Supply Systems," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-11, January.
    6. Carneiro, Tatiane C. & Rocha, Paulo A.C. & Carvalho, Paulo C.M. & Fernández-Ramírez, Luis M., 2022. "Ridge regression ensemble of machine learning models applied to solar and wind forecasting in Brazil and Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    7. Heydari, Azim & Majidi Nezhad, Meysam & Pirshayan, Elmira & Astiaso Garcia, Davide & Keynia, Farshid & De Santoli, Livio, 2020. "Short-term electricity price and load forecasting in isolated power grids based on composite neural network and gravitational search optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    8. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    9. Edna S. Solano & Carolina M. Affonso, 2023. "Solar Irradiation Forecasting Using Ensemble Voting Based on Machine Learning Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    10. Shi, Jian & Teh, Jiashen, 2024. "Load forecasting for regional integrated energy system based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and multi-model fusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    11. Akshit Kurani & Pavan Doshi & Aarya Vakharia & Manan Shah, 2023. "A Comprehensive Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) on Stock Forecasting," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 183-208, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    2. Matheus Henrique Dal Molin Ribeiro & Stéfano Frizzo Stefenon & José Donizetti de Lima & Ademir Nied & Viviana Cocco Mariani & Leandro dos Santos Coelho, 2020. "Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Self-Adaptive Decomposition and Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Chao-Ming Huang & Shin-Ju Chen & Sung-Pei Yang & Hsin-Jen Chen, 2023. "One-Day-Ahead Hourly Wind Power Forecasting Using Optimized Ensemble Prediction Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Gils, Hans Christian & Gardian, Hedda & Kittel, Martin & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander & Murmann, Alexander & Launer, Jann & Fehler, Alexander & Gaumnitz, Felix & van Ouwerkerk, Jonas & Bußa, 2022. "Modeling flexibility in energy systems — comparison of power sector models based on simplified test cases," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Farrokhifar, Meisam & Nie, Yinghui & Pozo, David, 2020. "Energy systems planning: A survey on models for integrated power and natural gas networks coordination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    6. Constantino Dário Justo & José Eduardo Tafula & Pedro Moura, 2022. "Planning Sustainable Energy Systems in the Southern African Development Community: A Review of Power Systems Planning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-28, October.
    7. Botor, Benjamin & Böcker, Benjamin & Kallabis, Thomas & Weber, Christoph, 2021. "Information shocks and profitability risks for power plant investments – impacts of policy instruments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Muntasir Murshed & Mohamed Elheddad & Rizwan Ahmed & Mohga Bassim & Ei Thuzar Than, 2022. "Foreign Direct Investments, Renewable Electricity Output, and Ecological Footprints: Do Financial Globalization Facilitate Renewable Energy Transition and Environmental Welfare in Bangladesh?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(1), pages 33-78, March.
    9. Keck, Felix & Jütte, Silke & Lenzen, Manfred & Li, Mengyu, 2022. "Assessment of two optimisation methods for renewable energy capacity expansion planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    10. Keller, Victor & English, Jeffrey & Fernandez, Julian & Wade, Cameron & Fowler, McKenzie & Scholtysik, Sven & Palmer-Wilson, Kevin & Donald, James & Robertson, Bryson & Wild, Peter & Crawford, Curran , 2019. "Electrification of road transportation with utility controlled charging: A case study for British Columbia with a 93% renewable electricity target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Dranka, Géremi Gilson & Ferreira, Paula & Vaz, A. Ismael F., 2021. "A review of co-optimization approaches for operational and planning problems in the energy sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    12. van Ouwerkerk, Jonas & Gils, Hans Christian & Gardian, Hedda & Kittel, Martin & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander & Murmann, Alexander & Launer, Jann & Torralba-Díaz, Laura & Bußar, Christian, 2022. "Impacts of power sector model features on optimal capacity expansion: A comparative study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    13. Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2022. "Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Regression-Based Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
    14. Chin Soon Ku & Jiale Xiong & Yen-Lin Chen & Shing Dhee Cheah & Hoong Cheng Soong & Lip Yee Por, 2023. "Improving Stock Market Predictions: An Equity Forecasting Scanner Using Long Short-Term Memory Method with Dynamic Indicators for Malaysia Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, May.
    15. Li, Fengyun & Zheng, Haofeng & Li, Xingmei & Yang, Fei, 2021. "Day-ahead city natural gas load forecasting based on decomposition-fusion technique and diversified ensemble learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    16. Máximo A. Domínguez-Garabitos & Víctor S. Ocaña-Guevara & Félix Santos-García & Adriana Arango-Manrique & Miguel Aybar-Mejía, 2022. "A Methodological Proposal for Implementing Demand-Shifting Strategies in the Wholesale Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-28, February.
    17. Marta Poncela-Blanco & Pilar Poncela, 2021. "Improving Wind Power Forecasts: Combination through Multivariate Dimension Reduction Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, March.
    18. Lekavičius, Vidas & Galinis, Arvydas & Miškinis, Vaclovas, 2019. "Long-term economic impacts of energy development scenarios: The role of domestic electricity generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Nicolai Lystbæk & Mikkel Gregersen & Hamid Reza Shaker, 2023. "Review of Energy Portfolio Optimization in Energy Markets Considering Flexibility of Power-to-X," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, March.
    20. Curty, Miryam G. & Borges, Carmen L.T. & Saboia, Carlos H.M. & Lisboa, Maria L.V. & Berizzi, Alberto, 2023. "A soft-linking approach to include hourly scheduling of intermittent resources into hydrothermal generation expansion planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:4:p:829-:d:1336624. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.