IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i17p4505-d1473893.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electric Vehicle Charging Load Demand Forecasting in Different Functional Areas of Cities with Weighted Measurement Fusion UKF Algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Minan Tang

    (College of New Energy and Power Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Xi Guo

    (College of New Energy and Power Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Jiandong Qiu

    (College of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Jinping Li

    (College of New Energy and Power Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Bo An

    (College of Automation and Electrical Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

Abstract

The forecasting of charging demand for electric vehicles (EVs) plays a vital role in maintaining grid stability and optimizing energy distribution. Therefore, an innovative method for the prediction of EV charging load demand is proposed in this study to address the downside of the existing techniques in capturing the spatial–temporal heterogeneity of electric vehicle (EV) charging loads and predicting the charging demand of electric vehicles. Additionally, an innovative method of electric vehicle charging load demand forecasting is proposed, which is based on the weighted measurement fusion unscented Kalman filter (UKF) algorithm, to improve the accuracy and efficiency of forecasting. First, the data collected from OpenStreetMap and Amap are used to analyze the distribution of urban point-of-interest (POI), to accurately classify the functional areas of the city, and to determine the distribution of the urban road network, laying a foundation for modeling. Second, the travel chain theory was applied to thoroughly analyze the travel characteristics of EV users. The Improved Floyd (IFloyd) algorithm is used to determine the optimal route. Also, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to estimate the charging load for electric vehicle users in a specific region. Then, a weighted measurement fusion UKF (WMF–UKF) state estimator is introduced to enhance the accuracy of prediction, which effectively integrates multi-source data and enables a more detailed prediction of the spatial–temporal distribution of load demand. Finally, the proposed method is validated comparatively against traffic survey data and the existing methods by conducting a simulation experiment in an urban area. The results show that the method proposed in this paper is applicable to predict the peak hours more accurately compared to the reference method, with the accuracy of first peak prediction improved by 53.53% and that of second peak prediction improved by 23.23%. The results not only demonstrate the high performance of the WMF–UKF prediction model in forecasting peak periods but also underscore its potential in supporting grid operations and management, which provides a new solution to improving the accuracy of EV load demand forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Minan Tang & Xi Guo & Jiandong Qiu & Jinping Li & Bo An, 2024. "Electric Vehicle Charging Load Demand Forecasting in Different Functional Areas of Cities with Weighted Measurement Fusion UKF Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-25, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:17:p:4505-:d:1473893
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/17/4505/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/17/4505/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Fengchun & Hu, Xiaosong & Zou, Yuan & Li, Siguang, 2011. "Adaptive unscented Kalman filtering for state of charge estimation of a lithium-ion battery for electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3531-3540.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ming Zhang & Dongfang Yang & Jiaxuan Du & Hanlei Sun & Liwei Li & Licheng Wang & Kai Wang, 2023. "A Review of SOH Prediction of Li-Ion Batteries Based on Data-Driven Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Guoqing Jin & Lan Li & Yidan Xu & Minghui Hu & Chunyun Fu & Datong Qin, 2020. "Comparison of SOC Estimation between the Integer-Order Model and Fractional-Order Model Under Different Operating Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Pang, Haidong & Yang, Zunxian & Lv, Jun & Yan, Wenhuan & Guo, Tailiang, 2014. "Novel MnOx@Carbon hybrid nanowires with core/shell architecture as highly reversible anode materials for lithium ion batteries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 392-398.
    4. Li, Yue & Chattopadhyay, Pritthi & Xiong, Sihan & Ray, Asok & Rahn, Christopher D., 2016. "Dynamic data-driven and model-based recursive analysis for estimation of battery state-of-charge," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 266-275.
    5. Hu, Lin & Hu, Xiaosong & Che, Yunhong & Feng, Fei & Lin, Xianke & Zhang, Zhiyong, 2020. "Reliable state of charge estimation of battery packs using fuzzy adaptive federated filtering," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    6. Li, Xiaoyu & Xu, Jianhua & Hong, Jianxun & Tian, Jindong & Tian, Yong, 2021. "State of energy estimation for a series-connected lithium-ion battery pack based on an adaptive weighted strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    7. Li, Hao & Fu, Lijun & Long, Xinlin & Liu, Lang & Zeng, Ziqing, 2024. "A hybrid deep learning model for lithium-ion batteries state of charge estimation based on quantile regression and attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    8. Quan Ouyang & Rui Ma & Zhaoxiang Wu & Guotuan Xu & Zhisheng Wang, 2020. "Adaptive Square-Root Unscented Kalman Filter-Based State-of-Charge Estimation for Lithium-Ion Batteries with Model Parameter Online Identification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Zheng, Xiujuan & Fang, Huajing, 2015. "An integrated unscented kalman filter and relevance vector regression approach for lithium-ion battery remaining useful life and short-term capacity prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 74-82.
    10. Cuma, Mehmet Ugras & Koroglu, Tahsin, 2015. "A comprehensive review on estimation strategies used in hybrid and battery electric vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 517-531.
    11. Singh, Karanjot & Tjahjowidodo, Tegoeh & Boulon, Loïc & Feroskhan, Mir, 2022. "Framework for measurement of battery state-of-health (resistance) integrating overpotential effects and entropy changes using energy equilibrium," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    12. Zhang, Shuzhi & Zhang, Chen & Jiang, Shiyong & Zhang, Xiongwen, 2022. "A comparative study of different adaptive extended/unscented Kalman filters for lithium-ion battery state-of-charge estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    13. Dong, Guangzhong & Zhang, Xu & Zhang, Chenbin & Chen, Zonghai, 2015. "A method for state of energy estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on neural network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 879-888.
    14. Yong Tian & Bizhong Xia & Mingwang Wang & Wei Sun & Zhihui Xu, 2014. "Comparison Study on Two Model-Based Adaptive Algorithms for SOC Estimation of Lithium-Ion Batteries in Electric Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-19, December.
    15. Ramesh Kumar Chidambaram & Dipankar Chatterjee & Barnali Barman & Partha Pratim Das & Dawid Taler & Jan Taler & Tomasz Sobota, 2023. "Effect of Regenerative Braking on Battery Life," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.
    16. Yang, Zunxian & Meng, Qing & Yan, Wenhuan & Lv, Jun & Guo, Zaiping & Yu, Xuebin & Chen, Zhixin & Guo, Tailiang & Zeng, Rong, 2015. "Novel three-dimensional tin/carbon hybrid core/shell architecture with large amount of solid cross-linked micro/nanochannels for lithium ion battery application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 960-967.
    17. Bizhong Xia & Zizhou Lao & Ruifeng Zhang & Yong Tian & Guanghao Chen & Zhen Sun & Wei Wang & Wei Sun & Yongzhi Lai & Mingwang Wang & Huawen Wang, 2017. "Online Parameter Identification and State of Charge Estimation of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Squares and Nonlinear Kalman Filter," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, December.
    18. Bizhong Xia & Zhen Sun & Ruifeng Zhang & Deyu Cui & Zizhou Lao & Wei Wang & Wei Sun & Yongzhi Lai & Mingwang Wang, 2017. "A Comparative Study of Three Improved Algorithms Based on Particle Filter Algorithms in SOC Estimation of Lithium Ion Batteries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    19. Liu, Guoan & Xu, Cheng & Li, Haomiao & Jiang, Kai & Wang, Kangli, 2019. "State of charge and online model parameters co-estimation for liquid metal batteries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 677-684.
    20. Zahid, Taimoor & Xu, Kun & Li, Weimin & Li, Chenming & Li, Hongzhe, 2018. "State of charge estimation for electric vehicle power battery using advanced machine learning algorithm under diversified drive cycles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 871-882.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:17:p:4505-:d:1473893. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.