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Understanding Energy Demand of the Tertiary Sector by Energy Carriers and End-Uses: An Integrated Bottom-Up and Top-Down Model Taking Germany as the Example

Author

Listed:
  • Sonja Arnold-Keifer

    (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Simon Hirzel

    (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Clemens Rohde

    (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Darmstadt University of Technology, Franziska-Braun-Strasse 3, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany)

Abstract

Despite its high share in national energy demand, the tertiary sector is an undifferentiated residual in the energy balances of most countries. To develop effective policy measures for enhancing energy efficiency, policymakers need a sound understanding of how the energy demand is structured. To date, only a few studies assess energy demand in the tertiary sector quantitatively. This paper aims to close this gap by introducing an integrated model that transparently breaks down the energy demand according to statistical subsectors, energy carriers and end-uses. The model combines a technology-based bottom-up with a top-down approach and applies it to a case study on Germany based on survey data from companies. Model validity is analyzed using a set of indicators. The results for Germany show that the model is consistent with the national energy balance showing an aggregate deviation of only 1%. The results for 2019 indicate that electricity demand in Germany’s tertiary sector is dominated by lighting (35%), information and communication technologies (33%) and the provision of mechanical energy (9%), while fuel demand is mainly due to space heating (78%), followed by mechanical energy (15%).

Suggested Citation

  • Sonja Arnold-Keifer & Simon Hirzel & Clemens Rohde, 2024. "Understanding Energy Demand of the Tertiary Sector by Energy Carriers and End-Uses: An Integrated Bottom-Up and Top-Down Model Taking Germany as the Example," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-25, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:17:p:4486-:d:1472847
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sonja Arnold-Keifer & Simon Hirzel & Clemens Rohde, 2025. "Integrating the Assessment of Environmental Costs and the Non-Energy Benefits of Energy Efficiency into an Energy Demand Analysis of the Tertiary Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-23, May.

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