Modelling and Forecasting Crude Oil Prices Using Trend Analysis in a Binary-Temporal Representation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992.
"A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Peter Nystrup & Stephen Boyd & Erik Lindström & Henrik Madsen, 2019. "Multi-period portfolio selection with drawdown control," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 245-271, November.
- Wen, Zhuzhu & Gong, Xu & Ma, Diandian & Xu, Yahua, 2021. "Intraday momentum and return predictability: Evidence from the crude oil market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 374-384.
- Liao, Shujie & Wang, Fengxia & Wu, Ting & Pan, Wei, 2016. "Crude oil price decision under considering emergency and release of strategic petroleum reserves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 436-443.
- Michał Dominik Stasiak, 2018. "A study on the influence of the discretisation unit on the effectiveness of modelling currency exchange rates using the binary-temporal representation," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 28(2), pages 57-70.
- Qiang Ji & Dayong Zhang & Yuqian Zhao, 2022. "Intra-day co-movements of crude oil futures: China and the international benchmarks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 77-103, June.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Dbouk, Wassim & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2018. "Predicting daily oil prices: Linear and non-linear models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 149-165.
- Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gerko, Alexander, 2005. "A Trading Approach to Testing for Predictability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 455-461, October.
- Duan, Huiming & Liu, Yunmei & Wang, Guan, 2022. "A novel dynamic time-delay grey model of energy prices and its application in crude oil price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Joanna Siwek & Patryk Żywica, 2025. "Application of Fuzzy Discount Factors in Behavioural Decision-Making for Financial Market Modelling," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, January.
- Michał Dominik Stasiak & Żaneta Staszak & Joanna Siwek & Dawid Wojcieszak, 2025. "Application of State Models in a Binary–Temporal Representation for the Prediction and Modelling of Crude Oil Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-14, February.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Michał Dominik Stasiak & Żaneta Staszak & Joanna Siwek & Dawid Wojcieszak, 2025. "Application of State Models in a Binary–Temporal Representation for the Prediction and Modelling of Crude Oil Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-14, February.
- Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
- Juan Reboredo & José Matías & Raquel Garcia-Rubio, 2012. "Nonlinearity in Forecasting of High-Frequency Stock Returns," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 245-264, October.
- Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Testing for predictability (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 1, pages 39-42, September.
- Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2011. "On economic evaluation of directional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1058-1065, October.
- Kozhan, Roman & Salmon, Mark, 2009. "Uncertainty aversion in a heterogeneous agent model of foreign exchange rate formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1106-1122, May.
- Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Gebka, Bartosz, 2014. "Does high frequency trading affect technical analysis and market efficiency? And if so, how?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 131-157.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995.
"Forecast evaluation and combination,"
Research Paper
9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-073 is not listed on IDEAS
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2006.
"Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1273-1287, August.
- Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2003. "Financial asset returns, direction-of-change forecasting, and volatility dynamics," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X.Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Constantin Bürgi & Mengdi Song, 2024. "Do Professional Forecasters Follow Uncovered Interest Rate Parity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11338, CESifo.
- Chao Liang & Yin Liao & Feng Ma & Bo Zhu, 2022. "United States Oil Fund volatility prediction: the roles of leverage effect and jumps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2239-2262, May.
- Kizilaslan, Recep & Freund, Steven & Iseri, Ali, 2016. "A data analytic approach to forecasting daily stock returns in an emerging marketAuthor-Name: Oztekin, Asil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 697-710.
- Sudarshan Kumar & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2023. "Harvesting the volatility smile in a large emerging market: A Dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1615-1644, November.
- Anatolyev, Stanislav, 2009.
"Nonparametric Retrospection and Monitoring of Predictability of Financial Returns,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 149-160.
- Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, New Economic School (NES).
- Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Xinjie Lu & Feng Ma & Jiqian Wang & Jing Liu, 2022. "Forecasting oil futures realized range‐based volatility with jumps, leverage effect, and regime switching: New evidence from MIDAS models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 853-868, July.
- Anatolyev Stanislav, 2009. "Multi-Market Direction-of-Change Modeling Using Dependence Ratios," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
- Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhu, You & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Gong, Jue, 2024. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities: A shrinkage heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with a large cross-market predictor set," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 673-711.
- Wu, Xu & Zhang, Linlin & Li, Jia & Yan, Ruzhen, 2021. "Fractal statistical measure and portfolio model optimization under power-law distribution," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Constantin Bürgi & Dorine Boumans, 2020. "Categorical Forecasts and Non-Categorical Loss Functions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8266, CESifo.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Hansen, Erwin & Cabrera, Gabriel, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and international stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
More about this item
Keywords
oil market; oil price forecasting; trend analysis; state modeling;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:14:p:3361-:d:1431456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.