The Inter-Regional Embodied Carbon Flow Pattern in China Based on Carbon Peaking Stress

Embodied carbon flows among regions have led to unfair carbon emission responsibility accounting based on production. However, the heterogeneity of carbon peaking stress between regions is significantly neglected for those embodied carbon flows. Incorporating the carbon peaking stress into the embodied carbon flows can more clearly show what causes the carbon peaking stress and which carbon flow paths are more critical. In this study, the decoupling index of carbon emissions and economy development was applied to characterize the carbon peaking stress in each region, and the environmental extended multi-regional input–output model was applied to re-evaluate the criticality of regional embodied carbon flows. The results showed that the carbon peaking stress in China improved from 2007 to 2012, but the rebound of carbon peaking stress in 2017 made most regions reverse the previous downward trend. The stress to reach carbon peaks varies considerably from region to region, and the stress in the northwest is much higher than that in developed eastern China. Considering the heterogeneity of carbon peaking stress, additional concerns should be given to the net embodied carbon output in the northwestern, northern, and central regions, which can help avoid the dilemma between outsourcing embodied carbon and reducing carbon emissions from production. The policy to reduce emissions should be implemented in all regions that benefit from the net embodied carbon output of the northern and northwestern regions, where the carbon peaking stress is higher. The focus should be on the actual improvement of the carbon peaking stress, not just on the transfer of stress. The increasing urgency of achieving carbon peaking targets and unequal stress for regional peaking emissions calls for differentiated regional mitigation measures to help the Chinese government scientifically and in an orderly manner promote the overall and local carbon peaking work.