IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i23p7970-d690757.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hybrid Machine Learning for Solar Radiation Prediction in Reduced Feature Spaces

Author

Listed:
  • Abdel-Rahman Hedar

    (Department of Computer Science in Jamoum, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah 25371, Saudi Arabia
    Department of Computer Science, Assiut University, Assiut 71526, Egypt)

  • Majid Almaraashi

    (Department of Computer Sciences, College of Computer Sciences and Engineering, University of Jeddah, Jeddah 23218, Saudi Arabia)

  • Alaa E. Abdel-Hakim

    (Department of Computer Science in Jamoum, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah 25371, Saudi Arabia
    Electrical Engineering Department, Assiut University, Assiut 71516, Egypt)

  • Mahmoud Abdulrahim

    (Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land Agriculture, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 22254, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

Solar radiation prediction is an important process in ensuring optimal exploitation of solar energy power. Numerous models have been applied to this problem, such as numerical weather prediction models and artificial intelligence models. However, well-designed hybridization approaches that combine numerical models with artificial intelligence models to yield a more powerful model can provide a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. In this paper, novel hybrid machine learning approaches that exploit auxiliary numerical data are proposed. The proposed hybrid methods invoke different machine learning paradigms, including feature selection, classification, and regression. Additionally, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are used in the proposed hybrid models. Feature selection is used for feature space dimension reduction to reduce the large number of recorded parameters that affect estimation and prediction processes. The rough set theory is applied for attribute reduction and the dependency degree is used as a fitness function. The effect of the attribute reduction process is investigated using thirty different classification and prediction models in addition to the proposed hybrid model. Then, different machine learning models are constructed based on classification and regression techniques to predict solar radiation. Moreover, other hybrid prediction models are formulated to use the output of the numerical model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) as learning elements in order to improve the prediction accuracy. The proposed methodologies are evaluated using a data set that is collected from different regions in Saudi Arabia. The feature-reduction has achieved higher classification rates up to 8.5% for the best classifiers and up to 15% for other classifiers, for the different data collection regions. Additionally, in the regression, it achieved improvements of average root mean square error up to 5.6 % and in mean absolute error values up to 8.3%. The hybrid models could reduce the root mean square errors by 70.2% and 4.3% than the numerical and machine learning models, respectively, when these models are applied to some dataset. For some reduced feature data, the hybrid models could reduce the root mean square errors by 47.3% and 14.4% than the numerical and machine learning models, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdel-Rahman Hedar & Majid Almaraashi & Alaa E. Abdel-Hakim & Mahmoud Abdulrahim, 2021. "Hybrid Machine Learning for Solar Radiation Prediction in Reduced Feature Spaces," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-29, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:23:p:7970-:d:690757
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/23/7970/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/23/7970/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    2. Munir Husein & Il-Yop Chung, 2019. "Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Microgrids Using a Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Sean J. Taylor & Benjamin Letham, 2018. "Forecasting at Scale," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 37-45, January.
    4. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39, January.
    5. Muneer, T. & Younes, S. & Munawwar, S., 2007. "Discourses on solar radiation modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 551-602, May.
    6. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Raj, Nawin & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Deep solar radiation forecasting with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Gabriel de Freitas Viscondi & Solange N. Alves-Souza, 2021. "Solar Irradiance Prediction with Machine Learning Algorithms: A Brazilian Case Study on Photovoltaic Electricity Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-15, September.
    8. Takahiro Takamatsu & Hideaki Ohtake & Takashi Oozeki & Tosiyuki Nakaegawa & Yuki Honda & Masahiro Kazumori, 2021. "Regional Solar Irradiance Forecast for Kanto Region by Support Vector Regression Using Forecast of Meso-Ensemble Prediction System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, June.
    9. Wang, Lunche & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad & Salazar, Germán Ariel & Zhu, Zhongmin & Gong, Wei, 2016. "Solar radiation prediction using different techniques: model evaluation and comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 384-397.
    10. Qing, Xiangyun & Niu, Yugang, 2018. "Hourly day-ahead solar irradiance prediction using weather forecasts by LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 461-468.
    11. Shab Gbémou & Julien Eynard & Stéphane Thil & Emmanuel Guillot & Stéphane Grieu, 2021. "A Comparative Study of Machine Learning-Based Methods for Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, May.
    12. Majid Almaraashi, 2017. "Short-term prediction of solar energy in Saudi Arabia using automated-design fuzzy logic systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, August.
    13. N. Yogambal Jayalakshmi & R. Shankar & Umashankar Subramaniam & I. Baranilingesan & Alagar Karthick & Balasubramaniam Stalin & Robbi Rahim & Aritra Ghosh, 2021. "Novel Multi-Time Scale Deep Learning Algorithm for Solar Irradiance Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, April.
    14. Voyant, Cyril & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2012. "Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 341-355.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Rangel-Heras & César Angeles-Camacho & Erasmo Cadenas-Calderón & Rafael Campos-Amezcua, 2022. "Short-Term Forecasting of Energy Production for a Photovoltaic System Using a NARX-CVM Hybrid Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Hasna Hissou & Said Benkirane & Azidine Guezzaz & Mourade Azrour & Abderrahim Beni-Hssane, 2023. "A Novel Machine Learning Approach for Solar Radiation Estimation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2022. "Boosting solar radiation predictions with global climate models, observational predictors and hybrid deep-machine learning algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    2. Pedregal, Diego J. & Trapero, Juan R., 2021. "Adjusted combination of moving averages: A forecasting system for medium-term solar irradiance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    3. Guijo-Rubio, D. & Durán-Rosal, A.M. & Gutiérrez, P.A. & Gómez-Orellana, A.M. & Casanova-Mateo, C. & Sanz-Justo, J. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Hervás-Martínez, C., 2020. "Evolutionary artificial neural networks for accurate solar radiation prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. Qin, Jun & Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Yao, Ling & Zhou, Chenghu, 2022. "Enhancing solar PV output forecast by integrating ground and satellite observations with deep learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Konstantinos Blazakis & Yiannis Katsigiannis & Georgios Stavrakakis, 2022. "One-Day-Ahead Solar Irradiation and Windspeed Forecasting with Advanced Deep Learning Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-25, June.
    6. Jiang, Chengcheng & Zhu, Qunzhi, 2023. "Evaluating the most significant input parameters for forecasting global solar radiation of different sequences based on Informer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    7. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    8. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining simple and less time complex ML models with multivariate empirical mode decomposition to obtain accurate GHI forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    10. Feng, Yu & Hao, Weiping & Li, Haoru & Cui, Ningbo & Gong, Daozhi & Gao, Lili, 2020. "Machine learning models to quantify and map daily global solar radiation and photovoltaic power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    11. Vu, Ba Hau & Chung, Il-Yop, 2022. "Optimal generation scheduling and operating reserve management for PV generation using RNN-based forecasting models for stand-alone microgrids," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1137-1154.
    12. Ngoc-Lan Huynh, Anh & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Ali, Mumtaz & Abdulla, Shahab & Raj, Nawin, 2021. "Novel short-term solar radiation hybrid model: Long short-term memory network integrated with robust local mean decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    13. Anh Ngoc-Lan Huynh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Duc-Anh An-Vo & Mumtaz Ali & Nawin Raj & Shahab Abdulla, 2020. "Near Real-Time Global Solar Radiation Forecasting at Multiple Time-Step Horizons Using the Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    14. Peng, Tian & Zhang, Chu & Zhou, Jianzhong & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad, 2021. "An integrated framework of Bi-directional long-short term memory (BiLSTM) based on sine cosine algorithm for hourly solar radiation forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    15. Victor Hugo Wentz & Joylan Nunes Maciel & Jorge Javier Gimenez Ledesma & Oswaldo Hideo Ando Junior, 2022. "Solar Irradiance Forecasting to Short-Term PV Power: Accuracy Comparison of ANN and LSTM Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    16. Guosheng Duan & Lifeng Wu & Fa Liu & Yicheng Wang & Shaofei Wu, 2022. "Improvement in Solar-Radiation Forecasting Based on Evolutionary KNEA Method and Numerical Weather Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Narvaez, Gabriel & Giraldo, Luis Felipe & Bressan, Michael & Pantoja, Andres, 2021. "Machine learning for site-adaptation and solar radiation forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 333-342.
    18. Shab Gbémou & Julien Eynard & Stéphane Thil & Emmanuel Guillot & Stéphane Grieu, 2021. "A Comparative Study of Machine Learning-Based Methods for Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, May.
    19. Cheng, Hsu-Yung & Yu, Chih-Chang & Lin, Chih-Lung, 2021. "Day-ahead to week-ahead solar irradiance prediction using convolutional long short-term memory networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2300-2308.
    20. Hoyos-Gómez, Laura S. & Ruiz-Muñoz, Jose F. & Ruiz-Mendoza, Belizza J., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of global solar irradiance in tropical environments with incomplete data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:23:p:7970-:d:690757. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.