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Robustness of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting against False Data Injection Attacks

Author

Listed:
  • Yao Zhang

    (Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Smart Grid, School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

  • Fan Lin

    (Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Smart Grid, School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

  • Ke Wang

    (Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Smart Grid, School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

Abstract

The accuracy of wind power forecasting depends a great deal on the data quality, which is so susceptible to cybersecurity attacks. In this paper, we study the cybersecurity issue of short-term wind power forecasting. We present one class of data attacks, called false data injection attacks, against wind power deterministic and probabilistic forecasting. We show that any malicious data can be injected to historical data without being discovered by one of the commonly-used anomaly detection techniques. Moreover, we testify that attackers can launch such data attacks even with limited resources. To study the impact of data attacks on the forecasting accuracy, we establish the framework of simulating false data injection attacks using the Monte Carlo method. Then, the robustness of six representative wind power forecasting models is tested. Numerical results on real-world data demonstrate that the support vector machine and k-nearest neighbors combined with kernel density estimator are the most robust deterministic and probabilistic forecasting ones among six representative models, respectively. Nevertheless, none of them can issue accurate forecasts under very strong false data attacks. This presents a serious challenge to the community of wind power forecasting. The challenge is to study robust wind power forecasting models dealing with false data attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao Zhang & Fan Lin & Ke Wang, 2020. "Robustness of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting against False Data Injection Attacks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-21, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:15:p:3780-:d:388735
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dong-Hoon Kim & Eun-Kyu Lee & Naik Bakht Sania Qureshi, 2020. "Peak-Load Forecasting for Small Industries: A Machine Learning Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Fath U Min Ullah & Noman Khan & Tanveer Hussain & Mi Young Lee & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Diving Deep into Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and a Novel Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Fahd A. Alturki & Emad Mahrous Awwad, 2021. "Sizing and Cost Minimization of Standalone Hybrid WT/PV/Biomass/Pump-Hydro Storage-Based Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Koziel, Sylvie & Hilber, Patrik & Westerlund, Per & Shayesteh, Ebrahim, 2021. "Investments in data quality: Evaluating impacts of faulty data on asset management in power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).

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