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Wind Power Long-Term Scenario Generation Considering Spatial-Temporal Dependencies in Coupled Electricity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Geovanny Marulanda

    (Institute for Research in Technology (IIT), ICAI School of Engineering, Comillas Pontifical University, 28015 Madrid, Spain)

  • Antonio Bello

    (Institute for Research in Technology (IIT), ICAI School of Engineering, Comillas Pontifical University, 28015 Madrid, Spain)

  • Jenny Cifuentes

    (Santander Big Data Institute, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28903 Getafe, Spain)

  • Javier Reneses

    (Institute for Research in Technology (IIT), ICAI School of Engineering, Comillas Pontifical University, 28015 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

Wind power has been increasing its participation in electricity markets in many countries around the world. Due to its economical and environmental benefits, wind power generation is one of the most powerful technologies to deal with global warming and climate change. However, as wind power grows, uncertainty in power supply increases due to wind intermittence. In this context, accurate wind power scenarios are needed to guide decision-making in power systems. In this paper, a novel methodology to generate realistic wind power scenarios for the long term is proposed. Unlike most of the literature that tackles this problem, this paper is focused on the generation of realistic wind power production scenarios in the long term. Moreover, spatial-temporal dependencies in multi-area markets have been considered. The results show that capturing the dependencies at the monthly level could improve the quality of scenarios at different time scales. In addition, an evaluation at different time scales is needed to select the best approach in terms of the distribution functions of the generated scenarios. To evaluate the proposed methodology, several tests have been made using real data of wind power generation for Spain, Portugal and France.

Suggested Citation

  • Geovanny Marulanda & Antonio Bello & Jenny Cifuentes & Javier Reneses, 2020. "Wind Power Long-Term Scenario Generation Considering Spatial-Temporal Dependencies in Coupled Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:13:p:3427-:d:379731
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ewa Chodakowska & Joanicjusz Nazarko & Łukasz Nazarko, 2021. "ARIMA Models in Electrical Load Forecasting and Their Robustness to Noise," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    3. Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu & Alexandru Pîrjan, 2020. "Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on a Bidirectional Long-Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-31, December.
    4. Elianne Mora & Jenny Cifuentes & Geovanny Marulanda, 2021. "Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Energy: A Comparison of Deep Learning Frameworks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-26, November.
    5. Dhaval Dalal & Muhammad Bilal & Hritik Shah & Anwarul Islam Sifat & Anamitra Pal & Philip Augustin, 2023. "Cross-Correlated Scenario Generation for Renewable-Rich Power Systems Using Implicit Generative Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, February.

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