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Expansion Planning Method of the Industrial Park Integrated Energy System Considering Regret Aversion

Author

Listed:
  • Haokai Xie

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Pu Zhao

    (State Grid Wenzhou Power Supply Company, Wenzhou 325000, China)

  • Xudong Ji

    (State Grid Wenzhou Power Supply Company, Wenzhou 325000, China)

  • Qun Lin

    (State Grid Wenzhou Power Supply Company, Wenzhou 325000, China)

  • Lianguang Liu

    (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

Industrial parks have various sources and conversion forms of energy. The many uncertainties in the planning of industrial park integrated energy systems (IPIES) pose a great risk of regret in planning schemes; thus, an expansion planning method for an IPIES, considering regret aversion, is proposed. Based on comprehensive regret value consisting of min–max regret aversion and the min average regret value, the method optimizes the comprehensive cost of the expansion planning scheme in IPIES under different natural gas price fluctuation scenarios, including costs of construction, operation and maintenance, and environmental protection. A multi-stage expansion planning scheme and typical daily operation plans under multiple natural gas price fluctuation scenarios of the IPIES in an economic and technological development zone in southeast China are used to demonstrate the validity of the method. The results show that, compared with a traditional planning method based on expectation, the proposed expansion planning method could reduce the maximum regret value by 14% on average, and greatly reduces the risk of decision-making regret by up to 18%. At the same time, the influence of natural gas price on expansion planning of the IPIES is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Haokai Xie & Pu Zhao & Xudong Ji & Qun Lin & Lianguang Liu, 2019. "Expansion Planning Method of the Industrial Park Integrated Energy System Considering Regret Aversion," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-20, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:21:p:4098-:d:280768
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    2. Fan, Wei & Tan, Qingbo & Zhang, Amin & Ju, Liwei & Wang, Yuwei & Yin, Zhe & Li, Xudong, 2023. "A Bi-level optimization model of integrated energy system considering wind power uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 973-991.

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