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Day Ahead Hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting—Application to South African Data

Author

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  • Phathutshedzo Mpfumali

    (Department of Statistics, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Caston Sigauke

    (Department of Statistics, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Alphonce Bere

    (Department of Statistics, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa)

  • Sophie Mulaudzi

    (Department of Physics, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa)

Abstract

Due to its variability, solar power generation poses challenges to grid energy management. In order to ensure an economic operation of a national grid, including its stability, it is important to have accurate forecasts of solar power. The current paper discusses probabilistic forecasting of twenty-four hours ahead of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using data from the Tellerie radiometric station in South Africa for the period August 2009 to April 2010. Variables are selected using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) via hierarchical interactions and the parameters of the developed models are estimated using the Barrodale and Roberts’s algorithm. Two forecast combination methods are used in this study. The first is a convex forecast combination algorithm where the average loss suffered by the models is based on the pinball loss function. A second forecast combination method, which is quantile regression averaging (QRA), is also used. The best set of forecasts is selected based on the prediction interval coverage probability (PICP), prediction interval normalised average width (PINAW) and prediction interval normalised average deviation (PINAD). The results demonstrate that QRA gives more robust prediction intervals than the other models. A comparative analysis is done with two machine learning methods—stochastic gradient boosting and support vector regression—which are used as benchmark models. Empirical results show that the QRA model yields the most accurate forecasts compared to the machine learning methods based on the probabilistic error measures. Results on combining prediction interval limits show that the PMis the best prediction limits combination method as it gives a hit rate of 0.955 which is very close to the target of 0.95. This modelling approach is expected to help in optimising the integration of solar power in the national grid.

Suggested Citation

  • Phathutshedzo Mpfumali & Caston Sigauke & Alphonce Bere & Sophie Mulaudzi, 2019. "Day Ahead Hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting—Application to South African Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-28, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:18:p:3569-:d:268391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jozef Barunik & Lubos Hanus, 2023. "Learning Probability Distributions of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2310.02867, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    2. Giorgio Guariso & Giuseppe Nunnari & Matteo Sangiorgio, 2020. "Multi-Step Solar Irradiance Forecasting and Domain Adaptation of Deep Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Electricity price forecasting with Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: Quantifying economic benefits of probabilistic forecasts," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Nosipho Zwane & Henerica Tazvinga & Christina Botai & Miriam Murambadoro & Joel Botai & Jaco de Wit & Brighton Mabasa & Siphamandla Daniel & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2022. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Solar Energy Forecasting Studies in Africa," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-23, July.
    5. Puah, Boon Keat & Chong, Lee Wai & Wong, Yee Wan & Begam, K.M. & Khan, Nafizah & Juman, Mohammed Ayoub & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar, 2021. "A regression unsupervised incremental learning algorithm for solar irradiance prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 908-925.
    6. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Manoel Henriques de Sá Campos & Chigueru Tiba, 2020. "Global Horizontal Irradiance Modeling for All Sky Conditions Using an Image-Pixel Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.

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