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Ultra-Short-Term Wind-Power Forecasting Based on the Weighted Random Forest Optimized by the Niche Immune Lion Algorithm

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  • Dongxiao Niu

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Di Pu

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Shuyu Dai

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

The continuous increase in energy consumption has made the potential of wind-power generation tremendous. However, the obvious intermittency and randomness of wind speed results in the fluctuation of the output power in a wind farm, seriously affecting the power quality. Therefore, the accurate prediction of wind power in advance can improve the ability of wind-power integration and enhance the reliability of the power system. In this paper, a model of wavelet decomposition (WD) and weighted random forest (WRF) optimized by the niche immune lion algorithm (NILA-WRF) is presented for ultra-short-term wind power prediction. Firstly, the original serials of wind speed and power are decomposed into several sub-serials by WD because the original serials have no obvious day characteristics. Then, the model parameters are set and the model trained with the sub-serials of wind speed and wind power decomposed. Finally, the WD-NILA-WRF model is used to predict the wind power of the relative sub-serials and the result is reconstructed to obtain the final prediction result. The WD-NILA-WRF model combines the advantage of each single model, which uses WD for signal de-noising, and uses the niche immune lion algorithm (NILA) to improve the model’s optimization efficiency. In this paper, two empirical analyses are carried out to prove the accuracy of the model, and the experimental results verify the proposed model’s validity and superiority compared with the back propagation neural network (BP neural network), support vector machine (SVM), RF and NILA-RF, indicating that the proposed method is superior in cases influenced by noise and unstable factors, and possesses an excellent generalization ability and robustness.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongxiao Niu & Di Pu & Shuyu Dai, 2018. "Ultra-Short-Term Wind-Power Forecasting Based on the Weighted Random Forest Optimized by the Niche Immune Lion Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:5:p:1098-:d:143859
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    3. Jianguo Zhou & Xiaolei Xu & Xuejing Huo & Yushuo Li, 2019. "Forecasting Models for Wind Power Using Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, January.
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    5. Chen, Hao, 2022. "Cluster-based ensemble learning for wind power modeling from meteorological wind data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Daniel Vassallo & Raghavendra Krishnamurthy & Thomas Sherman & Harindra J. S. Fernando, 2020. "Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.
    7. Paweł Piotrowski & Inajara Rutyna & Dariusz Baczyński & Marcin Kopyt, 2022. "Evaluation Metrics for Wind Power Forecasts: A Comprehensive Review and Statistical Analysis of Errors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-38, December.
    8. Paweł Piotrowski & Mirosław Parol & Piotr Kapler & Bartosz Fetliński, 2022. "Advanced Forecasting Methods of 5-Minute Power Generation in a PV System for Microgrid Operation Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
    9. Alexandru Pîrjan & George Căruțașu & Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu, 2018. "Designing, Developing, and Implementing a Forecasting Method for the Produced and Consumed Electricity in the Case of Small Wind Farms Situated on Quite Complex Hilly Terrain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-42, October.
    10. Mirosław Parol & Paweł Piotrowski & Piotr Kapler & Mariusz Piotrowski, 2021. "Forecasting of 10-Second Power Demand of Highly Variable Loads for Microgrid Operation Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-29, February.
    11. Xiao, Yulong & Zou, Chongzhe & Chi, Hetian & Fang, Rengcun, 2023. "Boosted GRU model for short-term forecasting of wind power with feature-weighted principal component analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    12. López, Germánico & Arboleya, Pablo, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting over complex terrain using linear regression models and multivariable LSTM and NARX networks in the Andes Mountains, Ecuador," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 351-368.

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