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Machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction

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  • Heinermann, Justin
  • Kramer, Oliver

Abstract

For a sustainable integration of wind power into the electricity grid, a precise prediction method is required. In this work, we investigate the use of machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction. We first analyze homogeneous ensemble regressors that make use of a single base algorithm and compare decision trees to k-nearest neighbors and support vector regression. As next step, we construct heterogeneous ensembles that make use of multiple base algorithms and benefit from a gain of diversity among the weak predictors. In the experimental evaluation, we show that a combination of decision trees and support vector regression outperforms state-of-the-art predictors (improvements of up to 37% compared to support vector regression) as well as homogeneous ensembles while requiring a shorter runtime (speed-ups from 1.60× to 8.78×). Furthermore, we show the heterogeneous ensemble prediction can be improved when using high-dimensional patterns by increasing the number of past steps considered and hereby the spatio-temporal information available by the measurements of the nearby turbines. The experiments are based on a large wind time series data set from simulations and real measurements.

Suggested Citation

  • Heinermann, Justin & Kramer, Oliver, 2016. "Machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 671-679.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:89:y:2016:i:c:p:671-679
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2015.11.073
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed: ensemble model output statistics by using heteroscedastic censored regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 371-388.
    2. Ramasamy, P. & Chandel, S.S. & Yadav, Amit Kumar, 2015. "Wind speed prediction in the mountainous region of India using an artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 338-347.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ouyang, Tinghui & Zha, Xiaoming & Qin, Liang & Xiong, Yi & Huang, Heming, 2017. "Model of selecting prediction window in ramps forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 98-107.
    2. Lolli, F. & Gamberini, R. & Regattieri, A. & Balugani, E. & Gatos, T. & Gucci, S., 2017. "Single-hidden layer neural networks for forecasting intermittent demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PA), pages 116-128.
    3. repec:eee:renene:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:529-541 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:energy:v:138:y:2017:i:c:p:977-990 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:renene:v:126:y:2018:i:c:p:254-269 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:5:p:1098-:d:143859 is not listed on IDEAS

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