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An Optimized Prediction Intervals Approach for Short Term PV Power Forecasting

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Listed:
  • Qiang Ni

    (School of Electric Engineering, Southwest Jiangtong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Shengxian Zhuang

    (School of Electric Engineering, Southwest Jiangtong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Hanmin Sheng

    (School of Automation Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Song Wang

    (School of Electric Engineering, Southwest Jiangtong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Jian Xiao

    (School of Electric Engineering, Southwest Jiangtong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

Abstract

High quality photovoltaic (PV) power prediction intervals (PIs) are essential to power system operation and planning. To improve the reliability and sharpness of PIs, in this paper, a new method is proposed, which involves the model uncertainties and noise uncertainties, and PIs are constructed with a two-step formulation. In the first step, the variance of model uncertainties is obtained by using extreme learning machine to make deterministic forecasts of PV power. In the second stage, innovative PI-based cost function is developed to optimize the parameters of ELM and noise uncertainties are quantization in terms of variance. The performance of the proposed approach is examined by using the PV power and meteorological data measured from 1kW rooftop DC micro-grid system. The validity of the proposed method is verified by comparing the experimental analysis with other benchmarking methods, and the results exhibit a superior performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Ni & Shengxian Zhuang & Hanmin Sheng & Song Wang & Jian Xiao, 2017. "An Optimized Prediction Intervals Approach for Short Term PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:10:p:1669-:d:116114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoyu Zhang & Zhe Shu & Rui Wang & Tao Zhang & Yabing Zha, 2018. "Short-Term Load Interval Prediction Using a Deep Belief Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Dongxiao Niu & Di Pu & Shuyu Dai, 2018. "Ultra-Short-Term Wind-Power Forecasting Based on the Weighted Random Forest Optimized by the Niche Immune Lion Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Nubia Ilia Ponce de León Puig & Leonardo Acho & José Rodellar, 2018. "Design and Experimental Implementation of a Hysteresis Algorithm to Optimize the Maximum Power Point Extracted from a Photovoltaic System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-24, July.

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