IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i10p2744-d175383.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-Term Load Interval Prediction Using a Deep Belief Network

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoyu Zhang

    (College of System Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)

  • Zhe Shu

    (College of System Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)

  • Rui Wang

    (College of System Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)

  • Tao Zhang

    (College of System Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)

  • Yabing Zha

    (College of System Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)

Abstract

In load predication, point-based forecasting methods have been widely applied. However, uncertainties arising in load predication bring significant challenges for such methods. This therefore drives the development of new methods amongst which interval predication is one of the most effective. In this study, a deep belief network-based lower–upper bound estimation (LUBE) approach is proposed, and a genetic algorithm is applied to reinforce the search ability of the LUBE method, instead of simulated an annealing algorithm. The approach is applied to the short-term load prediction on some realistic electricity load data. To demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method, it is compared with three state-of-the-art methods. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can significantly improve the predication accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoyu Zhang & Zhe Shu & Rui Wang & Tao Zhang & Yabing Zha, 2018. "Short-Term Load Interval Prediction Using a Deep Belief Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:10:p:2744-:d:175383
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/10/2744/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/10/2744/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Swaminathan Ganesan & Sanjeevikumar Padmanaban & Ramesh Varadarajan & Umashankar Subramaniam & Lucian Mihet-Popa, 2017. "Study and Analysis of an Intelligent Microgrid Energy Management Solution with Distributed Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Francisco Martínez-Álvarez & Alicia Troncoso & Gualberto Asencio-Cortés & José C. Riquelme, 2015. "A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Electricity-Related Time Series Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-32, November.
    3. Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti & Khosravi, Abbas, 2014. "Uncertainty handling using neural network-based prediction intervals for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 916-925.
    4. Xiaoyu Zhang & Rui Wang & Tao Zhang & Yajie Liu & Yabing Zha, 2018. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using a Novel Deep Learning Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Gregory D. Merkel & Richard J. Povinelli & Ronald H. Brown, 2018. "Short-Term Load Forecasting of Natural Gas with Deep Neural Network Regression †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-12, August.
    6. Jiyang Wang & Yuyang Gao & Xuejun Chen, 2018. "A Novel Hybrid Interval Prediction Approach Based on Modified Lower Upper Bound Estimation in Combination with Multi-Objective Salp Swarm Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-30, June.
    7. Qiang Ni & Shengxian Zhuang & Hanmin Sheng & Song Wang & Jian Xiao, 2017. "An Optimized Prediction Intervals Approach for Short Term PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    2. Zhang, Jinliang & Siya, Wang & Zhongfu, Tan & Anli, Sun, 2023. "An improved hybrid model for short term power load prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    3. Gangjun Gong & Xiaonan An & Nawaraj Kumar Mahato & Shuyan Sun & Si Chen & Yafeng Wen, 2019. "Research on Short-Term Load Prediction Based on Seq2seq Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-18, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Jialu & Wei, Danxiang, 2022. "Electric load prediction based on a novel combined interval forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    2. Seon Hyeog Kim & Gyul Lee & Gu-Young Kwon & Do-In Kim & Yong-June Shin, 2018. "Deep Learning Based on Multi-Decomposition for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    5. Marcin Fałdziński & Piotr Fiszeder & Witold Orzeszko, 2020. "Forecasting Volatility of Energy Commodities: Comparison of GARCH Models with Support Vector Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    7. Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Shuai & Zeng, Bo & Lu, Haiyan, 2022. "A novel ensemble probabilistic forecasting system for uncertainty in wind speed," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    8. Lifang Zhang & Jianzhou Wang & Zhenkun Liu, 2023. "Power grid operation optimization and forecasting using a combined forecasting system," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 124-153, January.
    9. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.
    10. Cabello-López, Tomás & Carranza-García, Manuel & Riquelme, José C. & García-Gutiérrez, Jorge, 2023. "Forecasting solar energy production in Spain: A comparison of univariate and multivariate models at the national level," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    11. Ussama Assad & Muhammad Arshad Shehzad Hassan & Umar Farooq & Asif Kabir & Muhammad Zeeshan Khan & S. Sabahat H. Bukhari & Zain ul Abidin Jaffri & Judit Oláh & József Popp, 2022. "Smart Grid, Demand Response and Optimization: A Critical Review of Computational Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-36, March.
    12. Jiyang Wang & Yuyang Gao & Xuejun Chen, 2018. "A Novel Hybrid Interval Prediction Approach Based on Modified Lower Upper Bound Estimation in Combination with Multi-Objective Salp Swarm Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-30, June.
    13. Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Yanpeng Cai & Rizwan Fazal & Gordhan Das Walasai & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, 2017. "An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, November.
    14. Zheng Wan & Hui Li, 2023. "Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Feature Filtering and Error Compensation under Imbalanced Samples," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-22, May.
    15. van der Meer, D.W. & Shepero, M. & Svensson, A. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity consumption, photovoltaic power generation and net demand of an individual building using Gaussian Processes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 195-207.
    16. He, Yaoyao & Xu, Qifa & Wan, Jinhong & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 498-512.
    17. Yang, YouLong & Che, JinXing & Li, YanYing & Zhao, YanJun & Zhu, SuLing, 2016. "An incremental electric load forecasting model based on support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 796-808.
    18. Zhang, Xiao-Han & Zhu, Qun-Xiong & He, Yan-Lin & Xu, Yuan, 2018. "Energy modeling using an effective latent variable based functional link learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 883-891.
    19. Mustafa Akpinar & Nejat Yumusak, 2016. "Year Ahead Demand Forecast of City Natural Gas Using Seasonal Time Series Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    20. Eklas Hossain & Ron Perez & Sanjeevikumar Padmanaban & Lucian Mihet-Popa & Frede Blaabjerg & Vigna K. Ramachandaramurthy, 2017. "Sliding Mode Controller and Lyapunov Redesign Controller to Improve Microgrid Stability: A Comparative Analysis with CPL Power Variation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-24, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:10:p:2744-:d:175383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.