IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i4p935-d141060.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Practical Guide to Gaussian Process Regression for Energy Measurement and Verification within the Bayesian Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques Maritz

    (Department of Engineering Sciences, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa)

  • Foster Lubbe

    (Department of Engineering Sciences, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa)

  • Louis Lagrange

    (Department of Engineering Sciences, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa)

Abstract

Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to quantify savings achieved as part of energy efficiency and energy management projects. M&V depends heavily on metered energy data, modelling parameters and uncertainties that govern the energy system under consideration. M&V therefore requires a stringent handle on the inherent uncertainties in the calculated savings. The Bayesian framework of data analysis in the form of non-parametric, nonlinear Gaussian Process (GP) regression provides a mechanism by which these uncertainties can be quantified thoroughly, and is therefore an attractive alternative to the more traditional frequentist approach. It is important to select appropriate kernels to construct the prior when performing GP regression. This paper aims to construct a guideline for a practical GP regression within the energy M&V framework. It does not attempt to quantify energy losses or savings, but rather presents a case study that could act as a road map for energy managers and M&V professionals to apply the GP regression as a Bayesian alternative to base-line adjustment. Special attention will be given to the selection of appropriate kernels for the application of baseline adjustment and energy savings quantification in a model-independent manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Maritz & Foster Lubbe & Louis Lagrange, 2018. "A Practical Guide to Gaussian Process Regression for Energy Measurement and Verification within the Bayesian Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-12, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:4:p:935-:d:141060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/4/935/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/4/935/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herman Carstens & Xiaohua Xia & Sarma Yadavalli, 2018. "Bayesian Energy Measurement and Verification Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Walter, Travis & Price, Phillip N. & Sohn, Michael D., 2014. "Uncertainty estimation improves energy measurement and verification procedures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 230-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Foster Lubbe & Jacques Maritz & Thomas Harms, 2020. "Evaluating the Potential of Gaussian Process Regression for Solar Radiation Forecasting: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Grillone, Benedetto & Danov, Stoyan & Sumper, Andreas & Cipriano, Jordi & Mor, Gerard, 2020. "A review of deterministic and data-driven methods to quantify energy efficiency savings and to predict retrofitting scenarios in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Gautham Krishnadas & Aristides Kiprakis, 2020. "A Machine Learning Pipeline for Demand Response Capacity Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Jun Yuan & Haowei Wang & Szu Hui Ng & Victor Nian, 2020. "Ship Emission Mitigation Strategies Choice Under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Simon Rouchier, 2022. "Bayesian Workflow and Hidden Markov Energy-Signature Model for Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Shakeel Ahmed, 2023. "A Software Framework for Predicting the Maize Yield Using Modified Multi-Layer Perceptron," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Younness EL Fouih & Amine Allouhi & Jamil Abdelmajid & Tarik Kousksou & Youssef Mourad, 2020. "Post Energy Audit of Two Mosques as a Case Study of Intermittent Occupancy Buildings: Toward more Sustainable Mosques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-22, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benedetto Grillone & Gerard Mor & Stoyan Danov & Jordi Cipriano & Florencia Lazzari & Andreas Sumper, 2021. "Baseline Energy Use Modeling and Characterization in Tertiary Buildings Using an Interpretable Bayesian Linear Regression Methodology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-30, September.
    2. Simon Rouchier, 2022. "Bayesian Workflow and Hidden Markov Energy-Signature Model for Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Granderson, Jessica & Price, Phillip N. & Jump, David & Addy, Nathan & Sohn, Michael D., 2015. "Automated measurement and verification: Performance of public domain whole-building electric baseline models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 106-113.
    4. Lu, Zhijian & Shao, Shuai, 2016. "Impacts of government subsidies on pricing and performance level choice in Energy Performance Contracting: A two-step optimal decision model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1176-1183.
    5. Ke, Ming-Tsun & Yeh, Chia-Hung & Su, Cheng-Jie, 2017. "Cloud computing platform for real-time measurement and verification of energy performance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 497-507.
    6. Jonathan Roth & Jayashree Chadalawada & Rishee K. Jain & Clayton Miller, 2021. "Uncertainty Matters: Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting for Residential Smart Meter Prediction, Segmentation, and Behavioral Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Vu, D.H. & Muttaqi, K.M. & Agalgaonkar, A.P., 2015. "A variance inflation factor and backward elimination based robust regression model for forecasting monthly electricity demand using climatic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 385-394.
    8. Suwon Song & Chun Gun Park, 2019. "Alternative Algorithm for Automatically Driving Best-Fit Building Energy Baseline Models Using a Data—Driven Grid Search," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Fonseca, Jimeno A. & Nevat, Ido & Peters, Gareth W., 2020. "Quantifying the uncertain effects of climate change on building energy consumption across the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    10. Ye, Xianming & Xia, Xiaohua, 2016. "Optimal metering plan for measurement and verification on a lighting case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 580-592.
    11. Deng, Qianli & Jiang, Xianglin & Cui, Qingbin & Zhang, Limao, 2015. "Strategic design of cost savings guarantee in energy performance contracting under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 68-80.
    12. Chitalia, Gopal & Pipattanasomporn, Manisa & Garg, Vishal & Rahman, Saifur, 2020. "Robust short-term electrical load forecasting framework for commercial buildings using deep recurrent neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    13. Herman Carstens & Xiaohua Xia & Sarma Yadavalli, 2018. "Bayesian Energy Measurement and Verification Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Liang, Xin & Hong, Tianzhen & Shen, Geoffrey Qiping, 2016. "Improving the accuracy of energy baseline models for commercial buildings with occupancy data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 247-260.
    15. Ziras, Charalampos & Heinrich, Carsten & Pertl, Michael & Bindner, Henrik W., 2019. "Experimental flexibility identification of aggregated residential thermal loads using behind-the-meter data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1407-1421.
    16. Smith, Sarah Josephine & Wei, Max & Sohn, Michael D., 2016. "A retrospective analysis of compact fluorescent lamp experience curves and their correlations to deployment programs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 505-512.
    17. Carstens, Herman & Xia, Xiaohua & Yadavalli, Sarma, 2017. "Low-cost energy meter calibration method for measurement and verification," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 563-575.
    18. Xie, Yiwei & Hu, Pingfang & Zhu, Na & Lei, Fei & Xing, Lu & Xu, Linghong & Sun, Qiming, 2020. "A hybrid short-term load forecasting model and its application in ground source heat pump with cooling storage system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1244-1259.
    19. Longo, Stefano & d’Antoni, Benedetto Mirko & Bongards, Michael & Chaparro, Antonio & Cronrath, Andreas & Fatone, Francesco & Lema, Juan M. & Mauricio-Iglesias, Miguel & Soares, Ana & Hospido, Almudena, 2016. "Monitoring and diagnosis of energy consumption in wastewater treatment plants. A state of the art and proposals for improvement," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1251-1268.
    20. Mathew, Paul A. & Dunn, Laurel N. & Sohn, Michael D. & Mercado, Andrea & Custudio, Claudine & Walter, Travis, 2015. "Big-data for building energy performance: Lessons from assembling a very large national database of building energy use," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 85-93.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:4:p:935-:d:141060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.