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Maximum-Likelihood Estimation in a Special Integer Autoregressive Model

Author

Listed:
  • Robert C. Jung

    (Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (520K) and Computational Science Lab (CSL) Hohenheim, Universität Hohenheim, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Andrew R. Tremayne

    (Management School, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZH, UK)

Abstract

The paper is concerned with estimation and application of a special stationary integer autoregressive model where multiple binomial thinnings are not independent of one another. Parameter estimation in such models has hitherto been accomplished using method of moments, or nonlinear least squares, but not maximum likelihood. We obtain the conditional distribution needed to implement maximum likelihood. The sampling performance of the new estimator is compared to extant ones by reporting the results of some simulation experiments. An application to a stock-type data set of financial counts is provided and the conditional distribution is used to compare two competing models and in forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert C. Jung & Andrew R. Tremayne, 2020. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation in a Special Integer Autoregressive Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:24-:d:368766
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Dimitris Karlis, 2003. "An EM algorithm for multivariate Poisson distribution and related models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 63-77.
    3. Robert C. Jung & A. R. Tremayne, 2003. "Testing for serial dependence in time series models of counts," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 65-84, January.
    4. Du Jin‐Guan & Li Yuan, 1991. "THE INTEGER‐VALUED AUTOREGRESSIVE (INAR(p)) MODEL," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 129-142, March.
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    11. Feike C. Drost & Ramon van den Akker & Bas J. M. Werker, 2009. "Efficient estimation of auto‐regression parameters and innovation distributions for semiparametric integer‐valued AR(p) models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 467-485, April.
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