IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v15y2025i16p1773-d1727223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of National-Level Modern Agricultural Industrial Parks on County Economies: The Analysis of Lag Effects and Impact Pathways

Author

Listed:
  • Xinzi Yang

    (College of Agriculture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530000, China)

  • Jun Wen

    (College of Agriculture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530000, China)

Abstract

County economies are the cornerstone of China’s economic and social development but face challenges such as a singular industrial structure and the outflow of production factors. As an important policy tool for rural revitalization, the impact mechanism of National-Level Modern Agricultural Industrial Parks (NMAIPs) on county economies remains inadequately explored. This study aims to quantify the dynamic economic effects of the NMAIP policy through rigorous empirical analysis and elucidate the core pathways driving county economic growth. Based on panel data from 44 counties in six central Chinese provinces from 2014 to 2024, this study employs a Multi-Period Difference-in-Differences (DID) model and finds a significant one-year lag effect of the NMAIP policy: in the year following park establishment, county GDP increased by an average of 8.5%, and this positive effect persisted until the fourth year but showed a trend of marginal diminution. Pathway analysis reveals that agricultural scale expansion (measured by gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery) and production efficiency improvement (measured by the ratio of output value to agricultural expenditure) are the core driving mechanisms, accounting for 48% and 35% of the total effect, respectively. In contrast, the mediating roles of industrial integration (comprehensive index) and industrial structure upgrading (share of agricultural services) were not statistically significant in the short run. The policy lag primarily arises from the conversion cycle of infrastructure investment to economic output, while pathway differences are closely related to the maturity of the county’s agricultural industrial chain and resource allocation efficiency. This study provides robust empirical evidence for optimizing the timing and pathways of the NMAIP policy design: policy effect evaluations require a 1–2 year “window period”; resources should be prioritized for projects that can rapidly enhance scale and efficiency (e.g., scaled planting, technology-driven efficiency gains), laying a solid agricultural foundation before gradually fostering industrial integration. This aligns with the spirit of “avoiding industrial hollowing-out” proposed in the 2024 Central “Thousand Villages Project” and provides the Chinese experience for the policy evaluation and path selection of global agricultural parks.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinzi Yang & Jun Wen, 2025. "The Impact of National-Level Modern Agricultural Industrial Parks on County Economies: The Analysis of Lag Effects and Impact Pathways," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:16:p:1773-:d:1727223
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/16/1773/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/16/1773/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Alexey Levkov, 2010. "Big Bad Banks? The Winners and Losers from Bank Deregulation in the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1637-1667, October.
    2. Cheng, Mengyao & Wu, Jialu & Li, Chaohui & Jia, Yuanxin & Xia, Xiaohua, 2023. "Tele-connection of global agricultural land network: Incorporating complex network approach with multi-regional input-output analysis," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jia, Ce & Guo, Xiaodan & Tian, Ziyue & Xiao, Bowen, 2025. "Unintended consequences of SO2 mitigation: Increased PM and infant mortality in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Jureviciene Daiva & Pupelyte Laura, 2013. "Forecasting of the Influence of Financial Institutions Loan Portfolio Change for the Economic Sectors of the Country," Creative and Knowledge Society, Sciendo, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, July.
    3. Wang, Yongpei & Guan, Zhongyu & Zhang, Qian, 2023. "Railway opening and carbon emissions in distressed areas: Evidence from China's state-level poverty-stricken counties," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 55-67.
    4. Tianjiao Zhao & Xiang Xiao & Qinghui Dai, 2021. "Transportation Infrastructure Construction and High-Quality Development of Enterprises: Evidence from the Quasi-Natural Experiment of High-Speed Railway Opening in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Honghui Miao & Qingshuang Quan & Ming Yang, 2025. "Study on the Regional Carbon Emissions Reduction Effect of Green Manufacturing—A Policy Experiment Based on the Construction of Green Parks in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Ziheng Niu & Feng Yi & Chen Chen, 2022. "Agricultural Insurance and Agricultural Fertilizer Non-Point Source Pollution: Evidence from China’s Policy-Based Agricultural Insurance Pilot," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Laiqun Jin & Xiuyan Liu & Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2021. "High-Technology Zones, Misallocation of Resources among Cities and Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 21-11, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    8. Johannes Blum & Klaus Gründler, 2020. "Political Stability and Economic Prosperity: Are Coups Bad for Growth?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8317, CESifo.
    9. Oliver Denk & Boris Cournède, 2015. "Finance and income inequality in OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1224, OECD Publishing.
    10. Jin, Laiqun & Dai, Jiaying & Jiang, Weijie & Cao, Kairui, 2023. "Digital finance and misallocation of resources among firms: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Li, Qianqian & Zhao, Zhengtang & Chen, Tingting, 2024. "The effect of public pension insurance integration on income disparities between urban-rural households: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Bilin Neyapti, 2018. "Income distribution and economic crises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 273-296, December.
    13. Zhangsheng Liu & Liuqingqing Yang & Liqin Fan, 2021. "Induced Effect of Environmental Regulation on Green Innovation: Evidence from the Increasing-Block Pricing Scheme," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-15, March.
    14. Feldmann, Horst, 2012. "Banking deregulation around the world, 1970s to 2000s: The impact on unemployment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-42.
    15. Lin, Ling & Xiao, Min & Yao, Rongrong & Zhang, Xiaoying, 2024. "Product market liberalization and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Laureti, Carolina & Szafarz, Ariane, 2023. "Banking regulation and costless commitment contracts for time-inconsistent agents," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Dan Pan & Peiyao Zhou & Fanbin Kong, 2023. "Effect of place-based policy on regional economic growth: A quasi-natural experiment from China’s Old Revolutionary Development Program," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(7), pages 1-20, July.
    18. Hongfeng Zhang & Xiangjiang Ding & Yue Liu, 2023. "The Impact of Low-Carbon Pilot Cities on the Development of Digital Economy: Empirical Evidence from 284 Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    19. Fan, Xiaomin & Xu, Yingzhi, 2023. "Does high-speed railway promote urban innovation? Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    20. Wang, Huaxing & Li, Tianzi & Zhu, Junfan & Jian, Youting & Wang, Zeyu & Wang, Zengwen, 2023. "China's new environmental protection law: Implications for mineral resource policy, environmental precaution and green finance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:16:p:1773-:d:1727223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.