IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v14y2024i10p1781-d1495634.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on Meteorological Drought Risk Prediction in the Daqing River Basin Based on HADGEM3-RA

Author

Listed:
  • Mingcong Lv

    (Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission (YRCC), Zhengzhou 450003, China
    Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and Estuary Regulation, Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), Zhengzhou 450003, China)

  • Zhongmei Wang

    (Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission (YRCC), Zhengzhou 450003, China
    Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and Estuary Regulation, Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), Zhengzhou 450003, China)

Abstract

Climate change is altering the water cycle and increasing drought risks in river basins. However, few studies account for minor droughts, despite their limited environmental impact. This study uses a pooling and exclusion method to remove the effects of minor droughts on the identification of drought events and analyze drought characteristics in the Daqing River Basin (DRB) using the HADGEM3-RA model within an Exposure–Resilience–Vulnerability (ERV) framework. It finds that the drought duration and the number of events are sensitive to pooling and exclusion rates. Drought severity is also sensitive to exclusion rates. Pooling and exclusion lead to fewer but longer and more severe droughts. Future droughts in the DRB are projected to become more severe, with durations averaging up to 7 months and severity increasing from 0.2 to 4.3. Drought peak severity is expected to exceed 1.28, with development and relief periods extending to 0.68 and 0.69 months, respectively. Risk levels in the basin are projected to rise from I to II–IV, with RCP4.5 scenarios showing higher risks than RCP8.5. Mountainous areas will face higher risks compared to plains. Initially, risk factors will increase then decline over time. These findings clarify drought dynamics and risk changes in the DRB under climate change. They can help in developing climate-resilient strategies for disaster reduction in similar basins.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingcong Lv & Zhongmei Wang, 2024. "Research on Meteorological Drought Risk Prediction in the Daqing River Basin Based on HADGEM3-RA," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-20, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:14:y:2024:i:10:p:1781-:d:1495634
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/14/10/1781/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/14/10/1781/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher R. Schwalm & William R. L. Anderegg & Anna M. Michalak & Joshua B. Fisher & Franco Biondi & George Koch & Marcy Litvak & Kiona Ogle & John D. Shaw & Adam Wolf & Deborah N. Huntzinger & Kev, 2017. "Global patterns of drought recovery," Nature, Nature, vol. 548(7666), pages 202-205, August.
    2. Jie Chen & François P. Brissette & Daniel Caya, 2020. "Remaining error sources in bias-corrected climate model outputs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 563-582, September.
    3. Jasper M. C. Denissen & Adriaan J. Teuling & Andy J. Pitman & Sujan Koirala & Mirco Migliavacca & Wantong Li & Markus Reichstein & Alexander J. Winkler & Chunhui Zhan & Rene Orth, 2022. "Widespread shift from ecosystem energy to water limitation with climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 677-684, July.
    4. Dai, Meng & Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Leng, Guoyong & Guo, Yi & Wang, Lu & Fang, Wei & Li, Pei & Zheng, Xudong, 2020. "Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    5. Yang, Yong & Chen, Rensheng & Han, Chuntan & Liu, Zhangwen, 2021. "Evaluation of 18 models for calculating potential evapotranspiration in different climatic zones of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xu, Yang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Zengchao & Hao, Fanghua & Li, Chong, 2021. "Projections of future meteorological droughts in China under CMIP6 from a three‐dimensional perspective," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    2. Yanqun Ren & Jinping Liu & Patrick Willems & Tie Liu & Quoc Bao Pham, 2023. "Detection and Assessment of Changing Drought Events in China in the Context of Climate Change Based on the Intensity–Area–Duration Algorithm," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Zhiming Zhang & Fengman Fang & Youru Yao & Qing Ji & Xiaojing Cheng, 2024. "Exploring the Response of Ecosystem Services to Socioecological Factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Vinícius B. P. Chagas & Pedro L. B. Chaffe & Günter Blöschl, 2022. "Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Tao He & Wenya Zhang & Hanwen Zhang & Jinliang Sheng, 2023. "Estimation of Manure Emissions Issued from Different Chinese Livestock Species: Potential of Future Production," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    6. Liu, Zihan & Cai, Lu & Dong, Qinge & Zhao, Xiaoli & Han, Jianqiao, 2022. "Effects of microplastics on water infiltration in agricultural soil on the Loess Plateau, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    7. Cui, Yi & Zhou, Yuliang & Jin, Juliang & Jiang, Shangming & Wu, Chengguo & Ning, Shaowei, 2023. "Spatiotemporal characteristics and obstacle factors identification of agricultural drought disaster risk: A case study across Anhui Province, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    8. Mohammed Mohi-Ud-Din & Md. Alamgir Hossain & Md. Motiar Rohman & Md. Nesar Uddin & Md. Sabibul Haque & Eldessoky S. Dessoky & Mohammed Alqurashi & Salman Aloufi, 2022. "Assessment of Genetic Diversity of Bread Wheat Genotypes for Drought Tolerance Using Canopy Reflectance-Based Phenotyping and SSR Marker-Based Genotyping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Bambo Bayo & Shakeel Mahmood, 2023. "Geo-spatial analysis of drought in The Gambia using multiple models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2751-2770, July.
    10. Omid Alizadeh, 2022. "Advances and challenges in climate modeling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-26, January.
    11. Israel R. Orimoloye & Adeyemi O. Olusola & Johanes A. Belle & Chaitanya B. Pande & Olusola O. Ololade, 2022. "Drought disaster monitoring and land use dynamics: identification of drought drivers using regression-based algorithms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1085-1106, June.
    12. Anne Gobin & Le Thi Thu Hien & Le Trinh Hai & Pham Ha Linh & Nguyen Ngoc Thang & Pham Quang Vinh, 2020. "Adaptation to Land Degradation in Southeast Vietnam," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-25, August.
    13. Lei Zhang & Wei Song & Wen Song, 2020. "Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Lancang-Mekong Region, South East Asia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-24, August.
    14. Akash Koppa & Dominik Rains & Petra Hulsman & Rafael Poyatos & Diego G. Miralles, 2022. "A deep learning-based hybrid model of global terrestrial evaporation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Yang Xu & Zijiang Yang & Liang Zhang & Juncheng Zhang, 2025. "An Evaluation of the Capability of Global Meteorological Datasets to Capture Drought Events in Xinjiang," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-28, January.
    16. Zhongfa Zhou & Qing Feng & Changli Zhu & Wanlin Luo & Lingyu Wang & Xin Zhao & Lu Zhang, 2022. "The Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecological Environment Quality in Karst Ecologically Fragile Areas Driven by Poverty Alleviation Resettlement," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Adil Dilawar & Baozhang Chen & Arfan Arshad & Lifeng Guo & Muhammad Irfan Ehsan & Yawar Hussain & Alphonse Kayiranga & Simon Measho & Huifang Zhang & Fei Wang & Xiaohong Sun & Mengyu Ge, 2021. "Towards Understanding Variability in Droughts in Response to Extreme Climate Conditions over the Different Agro-Ecological Zones of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-28, June.
    18. Kim, Ho-Jun & Chandrasekara, Sewwandhi & Kwon, Hyun-Han & Lima, Carlos & Kim, Tae-woong, 2023. "A novel multi-scale parameter estimation approach to the Hargreaves-Samani equation for estimation of Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    19. Isaac Busayo Oluwatayo & Tamunotonye Mayowa Braide, 2022. "Socioeconomic Determinants of Households’ Vulnerability to Drought in Western Cape, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, June.
    20. Jie Lu & Fengqin Yan, 2023. "The Divergent Resistance and Resilience of Forest and Grassland Ecosystems to Extreme Summer Drought in Carbon Sequestration," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:14:y:2024:i:10:p:1781-:d:1495634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.