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Geo-spatial analysis of drought in The Gambia using multiple models

Author

Listed:
  • Bambo Bayo

    (Government College University)

  • Shakeel Mahmood

    (Government College University)

Abstract

Climate change has made The Gambia vulnerable to drought hazard. Variability and negative trends in rainfall quantity and mid-season dry spells mainly attributed to the impacts of climate change. The inadequacy in hydrometeorological information puts the agricultural sector at a high risk which employs over 70% of the population. The aim of this study was to establish the intensity and spatiotemporal pattern of drought in The Gambia from 2000 to 2020 using multiple drought indices. Rainfall data, satellite images, and government policy documents were analyzed to determine the state of drought in The Gambia. Rainfall data, using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Precipitation Anomaly Percentage (PAP) were calculated and interpolated, and satellite images were processed using Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) to determine drought intensity and spatial distribution. The findings revealed that drought exists in The Gambia at moderate levels of SPI values (− 1.00 to − 1.49), (35% of PAP), and VCI of no drought intensity of more than 35%. The most drought prone areas in The Gambia are North Bank Region and Eastern parts of country in both north and south of The Gambia River banks. Recommendations of adaptation practice both on-farm and off-farm such as damming and economic diversification was drawn from other parts of the world, to reduce the negative effects of drought hazard in The Gambia.

Suggested Citation

  • Bambo Bayo & Shakeel Mahmood, 2023. "Geo-spatial analysis of drought in The Gambia using multiple models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2751-2770, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05966-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05966-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Israel R. Orimoloye & Johanes A. Belle & Adeyemi O. Olusola & Emmanuel T. Busayo & Olusola O. Ololade, 2021. "Spatial assessment of drought disasters, vulnerability, severity and water shortages: a potential drought disaster mitigation strategy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2735-2754, February.
    2. Dai, Meng & Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Leng, Guoyong & Guo, Yi & Wang, Lu & Fang, Wei & Li, Pei & Zheng, Xudong, 2020. "Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Anshuka Anshuka & Floris F. van Ogtrop & R. Willem Vervoort, 2019. "Drought forecasting through statistical models using standardised precipitation index: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 955-977, June.
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