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Probabilistic Assessment of Cereal Rye Cover Crop Impacts on Regional Crop Yield and Soil Carbon

Author

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  • Teerath Rai

    (Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • Nicole Lee

    (Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • Martin Williams

    (Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • Adam Davis

    (Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • María B. Villamil

    (Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • Hamze Dokoohaki

    (Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

Abstract

Field research for exploring the impact of winter cover crops (WCCs) integration into cropping systems is resource intensive, time-consuming and offers limited application beyond the study area. To bridge this gap, we used the APSIM model, to simulate corn ( Zea mays L.)-rye ( Secale cereale L.)-corn-rye and corn-rye-soybean ( Glycine max L.)-rye rotations in comparison with corn-corn and corn-soybean rotations across the state of Illinois at a spatial resolution of 5 km × 5 km from 2000 to 2020 to study the impact of WCCs on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and crop production. By propagating the uncertainty in model simulations associated with initial conditions, weather, soil, and management practices, we estimated the probability and the expected value of change in crop yield and SOC following WCC integration. Our results suggest that integrating cereal rye into the crop rotations imparted greater yield stability for corn across the state. It was found that the areas with low probability of increase in SOC ( p < 0.75) responded equally well for soil carbon sequestration through long term adoption of WCCs. This study presents the most complete uncertainty accounting of WCC benefits across a broad region and provides greater insights into the spatiotemporal variability of WCCs benefits for increasing WCC adoption rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Teerath Rai & Nicole Lee & Martin Williams & Adam Davis & María B. Villamil & Hamze Dokoohaki, 2023. "Probabilistic Assessment of Cereal Rye Cover Crop Impacts on Regional Crop Yield and Soil Carbon," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:1:p:176-:d:1031012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Basche, Andrea D. & Kaspar, Thomas C. & Archontoulis, Sotirios V. & Jaynes, Dan B. & Sauer, Thomas J. & Parkin, Timothy B. & Miguez, Fernando E., 2016. "Soil water improvements with the long-term use of a winter rye cover crop," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 40-50.
    3. Mohanty, M. & Sinha, Nishant K. & Somasundaram, J. & McDermid, Sonali S. & Patra, Ashok K. & Singh, Muneshwar & Dwivedi, A.K. & Reddy, K. Sammi & Rao, Ch. Srinivas & Prabhakar, M. & Hati, K.M. & Jha, , 2020. "Soil carbon sequestration potential in a Vertisol in central India- results from a 43-year long-term experiment and APSIM modeling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. Yang, J.M. & Yang, J.Y. & Liu, S. & Hoogenboom, G., 2014. "An evaluation of the statistical methods for testing the performance of crop models with observed data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 81-89.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meilin Ma & Carson Reeling & Megan N Hughes & Shalamar Armstrong & Richard Roth, 2023. "Comparison of conservation instruments under long-run yield uncertainty and farmer risk aversion," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(5), pages 1685-1714.

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