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Facilitating Resilience during an African Swine Fever Outbreak in the Austrian Pork Supply Chain through Hybrid Simulation Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Yvonne Kummer

    (Institute of Production and Logistics, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

  • Christian Fikar

    (Faculty VII for Life Sciences: Food, Nutrition and Health, University of Bayreuth, Fritz-Hornschuch-Strasse 13, 95326 Kulmbach, Germany
    Chair of Food Supply Chain Management.)

  • Johanna Burtscher

    (Institute of Food Science, Department of Food Science and Technology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Muthgasse 18, 1190 Vienna, Austria)

  • Martina Strobl

    (Austrian Competence Centre for Feed and Food Quality, Safety and Innovation (FFoQSI GmbH), Technopark 1C, 3430 Tulln, Austria)

  • Reinhard Fuchs

    (Department for Data, Statistics and Risk Assessment, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Zinzendorfgasse 27, 8010 Graz, Austria
    Institute of Systems Sciences, Innovation and Sustainability Research, University of Graz, Merangasse 18, 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Konrad J. Domig

    (Institute of Food Science, Department of Food Science and Technology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Muthgasse 18, 1190 Vienna, Austria)

  • Patrick Hirsch

    (Institute of Production and Logistics, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

This study aimed to simulate the impact of an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Austria. ASF is one of the most significant and critical diseases for the global domestic pig population. Hence, the authors evaluated control strategies and identified bottlenecks during an ASF outbreak. A hybrid approach was selected, including discrete-event and agent-based simulation. An extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model (within a pig farm) and a standard SEIR model (between pig farms) were used to simulate the chain of infection. A total of 576 scenarios with several parameter variations were calculated to identify the influence of external factors on key performance indicators. The main results show a comparison between two control strategies anchored in law: a standard strategy (SS) and a preventive culling strategy (SC). The calculated scenarios show a difference between these strategies and indicate that with SC during an outbreak, fewer farms would be infected, and fewer pigs would be culled. Furthermore, specific geographical areas were identified, which—due to their density of pigs and farms—would be severely affected in case of an ASF outbreak. The analysis of bottlenecks in rendering plants (RPs) showed an increase in the number of days RPs were overutilized as the transmission rate increased. In addition, SS caused more days of overutilized RPs than SC.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvonne Kummer & Christian Fikar & Johanna Burtscher & Martina Strobl & Reinhard Fuchs & Konrad J. Domig & Patrick Hirsch, 2022. "Facilitating Resilience during an African Swine Fever Outbreak in the Austrian Pork Supply Chain through Hybrid Simulation Modelling," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:3:p:352-:d:761795
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helen J Wearing & Pejman Rohani & Matt J Keeling, 2005. "Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(7), pages 1-1, July.
    2. Katrina Sinclair & Allan Curtis & Emily Mendham & Michael Mitchell, 2014. "Can resilience thinking provide useful insights for those examining efforts to transform contemporary agriculture?," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 31(3), pages 371-384, September.
    3. Pendell, Dustin L. & Leatherman, John & Schroeder, Ted C. & Alward, Gregory S., 2007. "The Economic Impacts of a Foot-And-Mouth Disease Outbreak: A Regional Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(s1), pages 19-33, October.
    4. Brailsford, Sally C. & Eldabi, Tillal & Kunc, Martin & Mustafee, Navonil & Osorio, Andres F., 2019. "Hybrid simulation modelling in operational research: A state-of-the-art review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 721-737.
    5. Elżbieta Jadwiga Szymańska & Mariusz Dziwulaki, 2022. "Development of African Swine Fever in Poland," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    6. Grzegorz Woźniakowski & Zygmunt Pejsak & Artur Jabłoński, 2021. "Emergence of African Swine Fever in Poland (2014–2021). Successes and Failures in Disease Eradication," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-10, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ananna Paul & Suvash C. Saha, 2025. "A Systematic Literature Review on Flexible Strategies and Performance Indicators for Supply Chain Resilience," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 26(1), pages 207-231, March.

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