IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v12y2022i3p352-d761795.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Facilitating Resilience during an African Swine Fever Outbreak in the Austrian Pork Supply Chain through Hybrid Simulation Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Yvonne Kummer

    (Institute of Production and Logistics, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

  • Christian Fikar

    (Faculty VII for Life Sciences: Food, Nutrition and Health, University of Bayreuth, Fritz-Hornschuch-Strasse 13, 95326 Kulmbach, Germany
    Chair of Food Supply Chain Management.)

  • Johanna Burtscher

    (Institute of Food Science, Department of Food Science and Technology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Muthgasse 18, 1190 Vienna, Austria)

  • Martina Strobl

    (Austrian Competence Centre for Feed and Food Quality, Safety and Innovation (FFoQSI GmbH), Technopark 1C, 3430 Tulln, Austria)

  • Reinhard Fuchs

    (Department for Data, Statistics and Risk Assessment, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Zinzendorfgasse 27, 8010 Graz, Austria
    Institute of Systems Sciences, Innovation and Sustainability Research, University of Graz, Merangasse 18, 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Konrad J. Domig

    (Institute of Food Science, Department of Food Science and Technology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Muthgasse 18, 1190 Vienna, Austria)

  • Patrick Hirsch

    (Institute of Production and Logistics, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

This study aimed to simulate the impact of an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Austria. ASF is one of the most significant and critical diseases for the global domestic pig population. Hence, the authors evaluated control strategies and identified bottlenecks during an ASF outbreak. A hybrid approach was selected, including discrete-event and agent-based simulation. An extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model (within a pig farm) and a standard SEIR model (between pig farms) were used to simulate the chain of infection. A total of 576 scenarios with several parameter variations were calculated to identify the influence of external factors on key performance indicators. The main results show a comparison between two control strategies anchored in law: a standard strategy (SS) and a preventive culling strategy (SC). The calculated scenarios show a difference between these strategies and indicate that with SC during an outbreak, fewer farms would be infected, and fewer pigs would be culled. Furthermore, specific geographical areas were identified, which—due to their density of pigs and farms—would be severely affected in case of an ASF outbreak. The analysis of bottlenecks in rendering plants (RPs) showed an increase in the number of days RPs were overutilized as the transmission rate increased. In addition, SS caused more days of overutilized RPs than SC.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvonne Kummer & Christian Fikar & Johanna Burtscher & Martina Strobl & Reinhard Fuchs & Konrad J. Domig & Patrick Hirsch, 2022. "Facilitating Resilience during an African Swine Fever Outbreak in the Austrian Pork Supply Chain through Hybrid Simulation Modelling," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:3:p:352-:d:761795
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/3/352/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/3/352/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helen J Wearing & Pejman Rohani & Matt J Keeling, 2005. "Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(7), pages 1-1, July.
    2. Katrina Sinclair & Allan Curtis & Emily Mendham & Michael Mitchell, 2014. "Can resilience thinking provide useful insights for those examining efforts to transform contemporary agriculture?," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 31(3), pages 371-384, September.
    3. Pendell, Dustin L. & Leatherman, John & Schroeder, Ted C. & Alward, Gregory S., 2007. "The Economic Impacts of a Foot-And-Mouth Disease Outbreak: A Regional Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(s1), pages 19-33, October.
    4. Brailsford, Sally C. & Eldabi, Tillal & Kunc, Martin & Mustafee, Navonil & Osorio, Andres F., 2019. "Hybrid simulation modelling in operational research: A state-of-the-art review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 721-737.
    5. Elżbieta Jadwiga Szymańska & Mariusz Dziwulaki, 2022. "Development of African Swine Fever in Poland," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    6. Grzegorz Woźniakowski & Zygmunt Pejsak & Artur Jabłoński, 2021. "Emergence of African Swine Fever in Poland (2014–2021). Successes and Failures in Disease Eradication," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-10, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pigford, Ashlee-Ann E. & Hickey, Gordon M. & Klerkx, Laurens, 2018. "Beyond agricultural innovation systems? Exploring an agricultural innovation ecosystems approach for niche design and development in sustainability transitions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 116-121.
    2. Lahrouz, A. & El Mahjour, H. & Settati, A. & Bernoussi, A., 2018. "Dynamics and optimal control of a non-linear epidemic model with relapse and cure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 496(C), pages 299-317.
    3. Das, Saikat & Bose, Indranil & Sarkar, Uttam Kumar, 2023. "Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 819-831.
    4. Thomas Vempiliyath & Maitri Thakur & Vincent Hargaden, 2021. "Development of a Hybrid Simulation Framework for the Production Planning Process in the Atlantic Salmon Supply Chain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Levan Elbakidze & Linda Highfield & Michael Ward & Bruce A. McCarl & Bo Norby, 2009. "Economics Analysis of Mitigation Strategies for FMD Introduction in Highly Concentrated Animal Feeding Regions," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 931-950.
    6. Richard C. Larson, 2007. "Simple Models of Influenza Progression Within a Heterogeneous Population," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 399-412, June.
    7. Egamberdiev, Bekhzod, 2024. "Social capital effects on resilience to food insecurity: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 435-450.
    8. Brune, Sara & Vilá, Olivia & Knollenberg, Whitney, 2023. "Family farms' resilience under the COVID-19 crisis: Challenges and opportunities with agritourism," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Robin N Thompson & Christopher A Gilligan & Nik J Cunniffe, 2016. "Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Charles Perrings, 2016. "Options for managing the infectious animal and plant disease risks of international trade," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 27-35, February.
    11. Hayes Dermot & Jacobs Keri & Schulz Lee & Crespi John, 2023. "Resilience of U.S. Cattle and Beef Sectors: Lessons from COVID-19," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 53-67, May.
    12. Céline Christiansen-Jucht & Kamil Erguler & Chee Yan Shek & María-Gloria Basáñez & Paul E. Parham, 2015. "Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-31, May.
    13. Carayannis, Elias G. & Grigoroudis, Evangelos & Wurth, Bernd, 2022. "OR for entrepreneurial ecosystems: A problem-oriented review and agenda," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 791-808.
    14. Ruiz-Meza, José & Montoya-Torres, Jairo R., 2022. "A systematic literature review for the tourist trip design problem: Extensions, solution techniques and future research lines," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 9(C).
    15. Tariq Halasa & Anette Boklund, 2014. "The Impact of Resources for Clinical Surveillance on the Control of a Hypothetical Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Denmark," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-11, July.
    16. Victoria Chebotaeva & Paula A. Vasquez, 2023. "Erlang-Distributed SEIR Epidemic Models with Cross-Diffusion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, May.
    17. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2011. "Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Daniele Proverbio & Françoise Kemp & Stefano Magni & Andreas Husch & Atte Aalto & Laurent Mombaerts & Alexander Skupin & Jorge Gonçalves & Jose Ameijeiras-Alonso & Christophe Ley, 2021. "Dynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-21, May.
    19. Thierry Winkel & Lizbeth Núñez-Carrasco & Pablo José Cruz & Nancy Egan & Luís Sáez-Tonacca & Priscilla Cubillos-Celis & Camila Poblete-Olivera & Natalia Zavalla-Nanco & Bárbara Miño-Baes & Maria-Paz V, 2020. "Mobilising common biocultural heritage for the socioeconomic inclusion of small farmers: panarchy of two case studies on quinoa in Chile and Bolivia," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 37(2), pages 433-447, June.
    20. Jana Poláková, 2018. "Sustainability—Risk—Resilience: How Does the Case of the Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions Measure up?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:3:p:352-:d:761795. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.