Forecasting the effects of reduced defense spending
Forecasts from a vector autoregressive model indicate that the substantial cuts in defense spending proposed by the Bush Administration in 1991 are likely to reduce GNP in both the short run and the long run. These forecasts hold even if proceeds from the spending cuts are used to reduce the federal debt. The long-range VAR forecasts, in particular, contrast markedly with those of the large-scale econometric models employed by the Congressional Budget Office.
Volume (Year): (1992)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.richmondfed.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/ Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro & Chaipat Sahasakul, 1983.
"Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax,"
NBER Working Papers
1214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1986. "Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 555-566, October.
- Barro, Robert J. & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1986. "Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax," Scholarly Articles 3451298, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "A reconsideration of Sims' evidence concerning monetarism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 167-171.
- B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987.
"Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Michelle R. Garfinkel, 1990. "The economic consequences of reducing military spending," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 47-58.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980.
"Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-257, May.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Wynne, 1992. "The analysis of fiscal policy in neoclassical models," Working Papers 9212, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Mark A. Wynne, 1991. "The long-run effects of a permanent change in defense purchases," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 1-16.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
- Lupoletti, William M & Webb, Roy H, 1986. "Defining and Improving the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Contributions from a VAR Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 263-285, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1992:i:nov:p:3-11:n:v.78no.6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Pascasio)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.