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Model fit and model selection

Author

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  • Narayana R. Kocherlakota

Abstract

This paper uses an example to show that a model that fits the available data perfectly may provide worse answers to policy questions than an alternative, imperfectly fitting model. The author argues that, in the context of Bayesian estimation, this result can be interpreted as being due to the use of an inappropriate prior over the parameters of shock processes. He urges the use of priors that are obtained from explicit auxiliary information, not from the desire to obtain identification.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2007. "Model fit and model selection," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 349-360.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2007:i:jul:p:349-360:n:v.89no.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    5. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2006. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 583, European Central Bank.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    7. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Kocherlakota Speaks
      by Agent Continuum in Agent Continuum on 2010-05-17 23:43:50

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1415-1450, September.
    2. Lee E. Ohanian, 2007. "Commentary on "Model fit and model selection"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 361-370.
    3. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
    4. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015. "Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
    5. Canova, Fabio & Paustian, Matthias, 2011. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 345-361.
    6. Celso Jose Costa Junior, 2016. "Understanding DSGE models," Vernon Press Titles in Economics, Vernon Art and Science Inc, edition 1, number 70.
    7. Dilip Nachane, 2017. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Modelling :Theory And Practice," Working Papers id:11699, eSocialSciences.

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    Keywords

    Econometric models ; Macroeconomics;

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