The shadow labor supply and its implications for the unemployment rate
In the wake of the Great Recession there has been a sharp rise in the number of people who indicate they want a job, but are not actively seeking one. This group, on the periphery of the labor market, may be viewed as a "shadow labor supply." Since they are not actively seeking work, they are not counted by the government as unemployed and not considered part of the labor force. But if many start seeking jobs as the economy recovers, the unemployment rate could rise or at least slow its descent. Davig and Mustre-del-Río analyze possible flow rates from this group and other non-employed groups into employment or into official unemployment. They find the shadow labor supply will likely affect the unemployment rate only modestly, but potential variation in labor market participation among the entire non-employed population may have greater impact.
Volume (Year): (2013)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (816) 881-2254
Web page: http://www.kansascityfed.org
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-34.
- Kimmel, Jean & Kniesner, Thomas J., 1998. "New evidence on labor supply:: Employment versus hours elasticities by sex and marital status," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 289-301, July.
- Michael W.L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin, 2013. "On the importance of the participation margin for market fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2013-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Shintaro Yamaguchi & Claudia Ruiz & Maurizio Mazzocco, 2014. "Labor Supply, Wealth Dynamics and Marriage Decisions," 2014 Meeting Papers 210, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Regis Barnichon & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2012.
"The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 83-131.
- Regis Barnichon & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2013. "The ins and outs of forecasting unemployment: Using labor force flows to forecast the labor market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Robert Shimer, 2012.
"Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
- Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 13-72.
- Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LDayrit)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.