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Commodity Prices Have Limited Influence on U.S. Food Inflation

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Abstract

Food prices increased at the fastest pace in more than two decades from July 2021 to July 2022. We show that this increase has not been driven by commodity prices but by an increase in consumer spending on food at home and increases in costs along the supply chain. Our results suggest that food inflation could ease if consumers shift more purchases back to food service establishments and if costs in food processing and marketing abate. Conversely, food inflation could remain high if broader measures of inflation persist.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortney Cowley & Francisco Scott, 2022. "Commodity Prices Have Limited Influence on U.S. Food Inflation," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue September, pages 1-4, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkeb:94818
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    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Economic%20Bulletin/documents/9131/EconomicBulletin22CowleyScott0923.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1975. "Alternative Responses of Policy to External Supply Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 183-206.
    2. Okrent, Abigail M. & Elitzak, Howard & Park, Timothy & Rehkamp, Sarah, 2018. "Measuring the Value of the U.S. Food System: Revisions to the Food Expenditure Series," Technical Bulletins 277568, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cortney Cowley & Jacob Dice & Amaze Lusompa & David Rodziewicz & Francisco Scott, 2024. "The Passthrough of Agricultural Commodity Prices to Food Prices," Research Working Paper RWP 24-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 29 Oct 2025.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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