IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2013inov25n2013-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Consumer inflation views in three countries

Author

Listed:
  • Maura Lynch
  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

Financial markets and professional forecasters expect central banks to hit their inflation targets. But U.S., British, and Japanese consumers expect inflation to be higher. Data suggest that consumers in these countries don?t pay attention to central bank inflation targets and react sluggishly to persistent shifts in the inflation rate. However, the price of oil apparently influences inflation expectations strongly. It?s possible that consumers use highly volatile oil prices in a rule of thumb for updating their inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Maura Lynch & Bharat Trehan, 2013. "Consumer inflation views in three countries," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov25.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:nov25:n:2013-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/november/consumer-inflation-expectations-us-uk-japan-oil-prices/el2013-35.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/november/consumer-inflation-expectations-us-uk-japan-oil-prices/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bharat Trehan, 2011. "Household inflation expectations and the price of oil: it's déjà vu all over again," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may23.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kelsey Berro & Gregory Colman & Dhaval Dave, 2015. "The Reality of the Real Rate," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 270-287, December.
    2. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2018. "Learning, robust monetary policy and the merit of precaution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Arora, Vipin & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping, 2013. "The divergence between core and headline inflation: Implications for consumers’ inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 497-504.
    3. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    4. Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers of BETA 2018-45, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Carlos R. Barrera Chaupis, 2018. "Expectations and Central Banks' Forecasts: The Experience of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and the United Kingdom, 2004 – 2014," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 578-599, December.
    7. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
    8. Augustus Kmetz & Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J. Wilson, 2022. "Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(31), pages 1-6, November.
    9. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2023. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 157, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:nov25:n:2013-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.