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How Long Do Rising Temperatures Affect Economic Growth?

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How might rising temperatures around the world affect the growth rate of GDP per person? Examining data across countries over the past half-century shows that a change in temperature affects GDP growth, but only temporarily. Combining estimates from past data with a simple growth model can help project the impacts of future higher temperatures on GDP per person by country. These projections suggest that total global losses in output per person could be substantial, though smaller than if a given change in temperature had a permanent effect on GDP growth.

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  • Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "How Long Do Rising Temperatures Affect Economic Growth?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(15), pages 1-6, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96392
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    1. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
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