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Elecciones presidenciales mexicanas y el gasto público del Ramo 20 Desarrollo Social, 1995 – 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Marlen Rocío Reyes Hernández

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México)

  • Pablo Mejía Reyes

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México)

  • Manuel Mancilla Bárcenas

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México)

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los efectos de las elecciones presidenciales sobre el gasto ejercido del Ramo 20 Desarrollo Social en México, y dos de sus funciones, durante el periodo 1995- 2016. Con ese fin, se estiman modelos autorregresivos extendidos para tomar en cuenta el impacto de factores económicos. Entre los resultados, destaca un papel significativo el crecimiento del PIB y de los ingresos públicos como variables de control y, especialmente, que existe evidencia completa de ciclo político presupuestal en el gasto total, y evidencia parcial en la función de gasto en desarrollo regional; en cambio, no existe evidencia en el gasto en abasto y asistencia social. Estos hallazgos reflejan, por un lado, conductas oportunistas de los gobiernos para mantenerse en el poder y el uso de los recursos públicos como estrategias de clientelismo político, pero, por otro, evidencia lo difícil que es comprobar su existencia.Presidential elections and public expenditure in social development in Mexico, 1995 – 2016ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of presidential elections on the government’s social expenditure in Mexico over the 1995-2016 period. To do so, extended autoregressive models are estimated for the total social expenditures and two of its main components, to take into account economics factors. Among the most outstanding results is that the growth of GDP and total government revenues play a significant role as control variables. More importantly, there is (full) evidence of a political budget cycle on the total social public expenditure and (partial evidence) on the regional development function; on the contrary, there is no evidence on the function of provision and social assistance. These results, on the one hand, support the hypothesis of opportunistic behavior of the governments to stay in power by using public resources for political clientelism and, on the other, reflect the difficulties to capture these practices.

Suggested Citation

  • Marlen Rocío Reyes Hernández & Pablo Mejía Reyes & Manuel Mancilla Bárcenas, 2019. "Elecciones presidenciales mexicanas y el gasto público del Ramo 20 Desarrollo Social, 1995 – 2016," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 38(1), pages 41-60, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:38:y:2019:i:1:id:125
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos38.1-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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