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Varianza condicional de medias móviles no-lineales

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Ventosa Santaulària
  • Alfonso Mendoza Velázquez
  • Manuel Gómez Zaldívar

Abstract

We present a new heteroskedastic conditional variance model using Non-Linear Moving Average as the basis for this specification []. The typical problem of this class of models-i.e., non-invertibility—is solved by means of an intuitive parametric restriction; this allows us to use Maximum Likelihood as the estimation procedure. The statistical properties of the new model are both simple and attractive for empirical purposes in finance: a natural fat-tailed distribution stands out. The Autocorrelation Function of the squared process allows us for identification of the number of lags to be included in the new specification. In addition, we present several Monte Carlo experiments where the properties of the model using finite samples are exhibited. Finally, an empirical application using exchange rates and capital market bonds is shown. ()NLMACHq

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Ventosa Santaulària & Alfonso Mendoza Velázquez & Manuel Gómez Zaldívar, 2008. "Varianza condicional de medias móviles no-lineales," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 27(2), pages 29-48, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:27:y:2008:i:2:id:99
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos27.2-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
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    5. Robinson, P. M., 1977. "The estimation of a nonlinear moving average model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 81-90, February.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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