IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gua/wpaper/em200502.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Non Linear Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Alfonso Mendoza

    (Departamento de Economia, Universidad de las Americas, Puebla)

Abstract

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model (Engle 1982a), an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged. Despite numerous successful developments, several empirical studies seem to show that their performance is not always appropriate. In this paper a new conditional heteroskedastic variance model is proposed: the Non-Linear Moving Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity (NLMACH). Its properties are similar to those of the ARCH-class specifications although it does not belong to this class and represents an alternative for modeling conditional volatility through a non-linear moving average specification. Pseudo Maximum likelihood allows for ease of estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia & Alfonso Mendoza, 2005. "Non Linear Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200502, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:em200502
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economia.ugto.org/WorkingPapers/EM200502.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Dominique Guegan, 1994. "Séries chronologiques non linéaires à temps discret," Post-Print halshs-00196420, HAL.
    5. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    7. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    2. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Mendoza V., Alfonso, 2005. "Non Linear Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity," MPRA Paper 58769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    5. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    8. Patricia Chelley-Steeley & James Steeley, 2005. "The leverage effect in the UK stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 409-423.
    9. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    10. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bauer, Rob M M J & Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C, 1994. "German Stock Market Dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.
    12. Li, Qi & Yang, Jian & Hsiao, Cheng & Chang, Young-Jae, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and volatility in international stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 650-665, December.
    13. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    14. Jorge Caiado, 2004. "Modelling And Forecasting The Volatility Of The Portuguese Stock Index Psi-20," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 9(1), pages 3-21.
    15. Martinez Oscar & Olmo Jose, 2012. "A Nonlinear Threshold Model for the Dependence of Extremes of Stationary Sequences," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 1-39, September.
    16. Steeley, James M., 2006. "Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-86, February.
    17. Ioannis A. Tampakoudis & Demetres N. Subeniotis & Ioannis G. Kroustalis, 2012. "Modelling volatility during the current financial crisis: an empirical analysis of the US and the UK stock markets," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3/4), pages 171-194.
    18. L. Grossi & G. Morelli, 2006. "Robust volatility forecasts and model selection in financial time series," Economics Department Working Papers 2006-SE02, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    19. Sofia Anyfantaki & Antonis Demos, 2016. "Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying EGARCH(1,1) in Mean Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 293-310, February.
    20. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    21. Font, Begoña, 1998. "Modelización de series temporales financieras. Una recopilación," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3664, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional Heteroskedastic Models; NLMACH(q); Volatility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:em200502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luis Sanchez Mier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eeugtmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.