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Highway Penetration of Central Cities: Not a Major Cause of Suburbanization*

* This paper is a replication of an original study

Author

Listed:
  • Wendell Cox
  • Peter Gordon
  • Christian L. Redfearn

Abstract

Nathaniel Baum-Snow has investigated the impact of the introduction of the interstate highway system in the U.S. on the decline of central city populations. He finds that it is has had a significant effect on central city population decline and increased suburbanization. He suggests that had the interstate highway system not been built, the “aggregate central city population would have [grown] by about 8 percent.†We offer a number of reasons to believe that the reported correlation is spurious. That is, we believe that central city populations would have declined even in the absence of the interstate highway system. We suggest, first, that suburbanization of cities is a long-standing and almost universal process. As incomes rise, most people want the range and choice offered by automobiles. Increased auto use, in turn, causes the further dispersal of destinations which increases the demand for auto use. This is a powerful cycle that can be observed in practically all places where incomes have been rising. Looking beyond Baum-Snow’s sample, we examine European cities that also experience significant suburbanization, and we find no evidence that a highway that pierces the central city makes any difference to central-city population change. We suggest that one possible source of spurious correlation is the initial existence of undeveloped “greenfield†areas in central cities in Baum-Snow’s study. In suggesting mechanisms to explain his findings, Baum-Snow points to the monocentric city model; we offer some criticisms of the relevance of that model. We find no fault with Baum-Snow's statistical work, but it is possible to get the statistical significances right and still be wrong.

Suggested Citation

  • Wendell Cox & Peter Gordon & Christian L. Redfearn, 2008. "Highway Penetration of Central Cities: Not a Major Cause of Suburbanization," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 5(1), pages 32-45, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:32-45
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Mieszkowski & Edwin S. Mills, 1993. "The Causes of Metropolitan Suburbanization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 135-147, Summer.
    2. Editorial Article, 0. "Contents," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 3.
    3. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
    4. Editorial Article, 0. "Contents," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 2.
    5. Editorial Article, 0. "Contents," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 3.
    6. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel, 2007. "Suburbanization and transportation in the monocentric model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 405-423, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miquel-Àngel García-López, 2010. "The Accessibility City. When Transport Infrastructure Matters in Urban Spatial Structure," Working Papers XREAP2010-01, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Feb 2010.
    2. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2008. "Reply to Cox, Gordon, and Redfearn's Comment on "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?"," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 5(1), pages 46-50, January.
    3. Garcia-López, Miquel-Àngel, 2010. "Population suburbanization in Barcelona, 1991-2005: Is its spatial structure changing?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 119-132, June.
    4. Miquel-Ángel Garcia-López & Ilias Pasidis & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2015. "Express delivery to the suburbs. The effects of transportation in Europe’s heterogeneous cities," Working Papers 2015/30, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    5. Iacono, Michael & Levinson, David, 2016. "Mutual causality in road network growth and economic development," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 209-217.
    6. Peter Gordon Sanford Ikeda, 2012. "Does Density Matter?," Working Paper 8957, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.

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    Replication

    This item is a replication of:
  • Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
  • More about this item

    Keywords

    Suburbanization; depopulation; central cities; highway impacts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Highway Penetration of Central Cities: Not a Major Cause of Suburbanization (EJW 2008) in ReplicationWiki

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