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Transportation security and the role of resilience: A foundation for operational metrics

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  • Cox, Andrew
  • Prager, Fynnwin
  • Rose, Adam

Abstract

This paper presents operational metrics to determine a passenger transportation system's resilience to terrorism. The metrics range from those specific to the number of trips to more holistic measures that include the contribution of these trips directly and indirectly to economic activity. These metrics can aid decision-makers in rendering more informed judgments about resource allocation and how to design a portfolio of security and recovery strategies. The paper also provides a framework for evaluating transportation risk, including the important role of perceptions in potentially amplifying these risks. It provides a range of strategies to promote resilience as well. Resilience of a transportation system is then quantified using the real-world case of the 2005 London subway and bus bombings. In terms of ordinary resilience, we find that 77.4 percent of total journey reductions on attacked modes were offset by increases in substitute modes for the 4 months following the attacks. We also estimate that 76.9 percent of total journey reductions on attacked modes were the result of a "fear factor," as opposed to capacity reductions. The paper concludes with a set of proposed prospective resilience measures to evaluate the potential resilience of a transportation system. These metrics are based on the vulnerability, flexibility, and resource availability to cope with a terrorist attack or natural disaster.

Suggested Citation

  • Cox, Andrew & Prager, Fynnwin & Rose, Adam, 2011. "Transportation security and the role of resilience: A foundation for operational metrics," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 307-317, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:307-317
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. D’Lima, Minette & Medda, Francesca, 2015. "A new measure of resilience: An application to the London Underground," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 35-46.
    2. Tsekeris, Theodore & Souliotou, Anastasia-Zoi, 2014. "Graph-theoretic evaluation support tool for fixed-route transport development in metropolitan areas," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 88-95.
    3. Cats, O. & Yap, M. & van Oort, N., 2016. "Exposing the role of exposure: Public transport network risk analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Faturechi, Reza & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2014. "Travel time resilience of roadway networks under disaster," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 47-64.
    5. Demirel, Hande & Kompil, Mert & Nemry, Françoise, 2015. "A framework to analyze the vulnerability of European road networks due to Sea-Level Rise (SLR) and sea storm surges," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 62-76.
    6. Chen, Zhenhua & Rose, Adam Z. & Prager, Fynnwin & Chatterjee, Samrat, 2017. "Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 207-226.
    7. Szyliowicz, Joseph S., 2013. "Safeguarding critical transportation infrastructure: The US case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 69-74.
    8. Janić, Milan, 2015. "Reprint of “Modelling the resilience, friability and costs of an air transport network affected by a large-scale disruptive event”," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 77-92.
    9. repec:eee:reensy:v:145:y:2016:i:c:p:47-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Urciuoli, Luca, 2016. "What are the causes of transport insecurity? Results from a survey with transport operators," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 189-202.
    11. repec:eee:transa:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:238-251 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:eee:reensy:v:167:y:2017:i:c:p:544-553 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sakano, R. & Obeng, K. & Fuller, K., 2016. "Airport security and screening satisfaction: A case study of U.S," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 129-138.
    14. repec:spr:annopr:v:258:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-015-2087-y is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:reensy:v:153:y:2016:i:c:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Reggiani, Aura, 2013. "Network resilience for transport security: Some methodological considerations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 63-68.
    17. Janić, Milan, 2015. "Modelling the resilience, friability and costs of an air transport network affected by a large-scale disruptive event," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-16.
    18. Anna Rita Manca & Peter Benczur & Enrico Giovannini, 2017. "Building a Scientific Narrative Towards a More Resilient EU Society. Part 1: a Conceptual Framework," JRC Working Papers JRC106265, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    19. Aura Reggiani, 2012. "Accessibility, connectivity and resilience in complex networks," Chapters,in: Accessibility Analysis and Transport Planning, chapter 2, pages 15-36 Edward Elgar Publishing.

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