Preemptive facility interdiction under damage uncertainty

The preemptive facility interdiction problem aims to disable or diminish future threats from adversaries by proactively targeting their critical facilities. This research generalizes a preemptive facility interdiction problem with capacitated facilities. The problem is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem in which the interdictor, at the upper level, decides to attack several facilities to maximize the supply cost of the adversary (defender) force at the lower level. We make a realistic assumption that the magnitude of damage after the attack decisions is uncertain, leading to the partially available capacity for the defender to supply some of the demand points. The network defender may allow for a demand shortage while having the option to reallocate some of the demands to alternative facilities at a fixed cost and potentially higher transportation costs. The defender reacts to the attack to keep the supply network operational at the minimum expected cost.