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Data-driven resilience analysis of the global container shipping network against two cascading failures

Author

Listed:
  • Cao, Yuhao
  • Xin, Xuri
  • Jarumaneeroj, Pisit
  • Li, Huanhuan
  • Feng, Yinwei
  • Wang, Jin
  • Wang, Xinjian
  • Pyne, Robyn
  • Yang, Zaili

Abstract

Being a fundamental link in the global supply chain and logistics system, the global container shipping network (GCSN) is highly interconnected, which causes the network resilience challenges by the cascading failures triggered by extreme events (e.g., COVID-19 and regional conflicts). Within this dynamic process, the load redistribution behaviour is the core countermeasure for the propagation of cascading failures, however the diversified mechanism has not been systematically studied. To fill in these gaps, this study aims to develop a pioneering resilience analysis framework against cascading failures, to comprehensively explore the impact of port disruptions on the shipping network resilience. By pioneering the influence analysis of port betweenness, weight, and connectivity on load determination and target selection, a port importance assessment method is applied as the foundation for load redistribution decisions. Based on the global service routes data from 2020 to 2023, the GCSN resilience against the sequential cascading failures of 686 ports worldwide is quantified by three metrics. A scenario analysis is conducted to simulate the effects of cascading failures triggered by 5 historical port disruption events (e.g., the COVID-19 port lockdowns and the 2024 bridge collision at Baltimore port) on resilience of the network. Determining the identified critical capacity threshold is pivotal for effectively enhancing the system’s resilience and preventing the likelihood of cascading failures. Additionally, this study offers cutting-edge perspectives to the global shipping industry stakeholders. It presents distinct strategies and preferences, offering actionable advice for port authorities in their risk response decisions. Moreover, this study delivers an economic rationale and critical evaluations, instrumental for the strategic maintenance, planning and augmentation of port infrastructures to prevent unforeseen risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, Yuhao & Xin, Xuri & Jarumaneeroj, Pisit & Li, Huanhuan & Feng, Yinwei & Wang, Jin & Wang, Xinjian & Pyne, Robyn & Yang, Zaili, 2025. "Data-driven resilience analysis of the global container shipping network against two cascading failures," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:193:y:2025:i:c:s1366554524004484
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103857
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    Cited by:

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    4. Liu, Xintong & Ji, Huiting & Teixeira, Ângelo P. & Rong, Hao & Yu, Qing, 2026. "Enhancing maritime accident causation analysis through a hybrid machine learning approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 267(PB).
    5. Xu, Keyu & Liu, Jiaguo & Li, Zhenfu, 2025. "Vulnerability assessments of global liner shipping network based on extended coupled map lattices," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PA).
    6. Cheng, Jiannan & Chen, Jinzhi & Yang, Zhongzhen & Lian, Feng, 2025. "Resilience analysis of the sino-european trade transportation networks: The role of the New western land-sea corridor," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    7. Xu, Mengqiao & Shen, Yihui & Zhu, Yifan & Hong, Li & Ma, Mengzhi & Lü, Linyuan & Li, Kevin X., 2025. "Identification of critical sets of ports in cascading failures of global liner shipping network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    8. Francis Okechukwu CHIKELEZE & Anatolijs KRIVINS & Valters KAZE & Thomas Alama ETALONG, 2025. "Risk management practices and organizational performance in transportation companies," Access Journal, Access Press Publishing House, vol. 6(3), pages 546-566, July.
    9. Xin, Xuri & Yang, Zaili, 2026. "Resilience assessment: Insights from port community structures across the global container shipping network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 265(PA).
    10. Zhang, Jinglin & Xin, Xuri & Liao, Zhigang & Dubey, Rameshwar & Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Li, Na & Yang, Zaili, 2025. "Analysis of the ripple effects of disruptions on multimodal container terminals operations: a System Dynamics approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    11. Si, Ruibin & Wang, Nan & Jia, Peng & Li, Haijiang & Yuan, Shuang, 2026. "Unraveling structural shifts and resilience patterns of global and intercontinental crude oil maritime transportation networks under geopolitical conflicts: A multiplex network model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    12. Xin, Xuri & Cao, Yuhao & Jarumaneeroj, Pisit & Yang, Zaili, 2025. "Vulnerability assessment of International Container Shipping Networks under national-level restriction policies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 191-209.
    13. Xu, Yang & Peng, Peng & Claramunt, Christophe & Qian, Jiale & Lu, Feng, 2026. "Resilience of the global maritime LNG network: From static Bow-tie to dynamic SIR modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 265(PB).
    14. Cao, Yuhao & Xin, Xuri & Wang, Xinjian & Wang, Jin & Yang, Zaili, 2025. "Multi-objective resilience-oriented optimisation for the global container shipping network against cascading failures," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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