IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v94y2016icp397-410.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting passenger travel demand for air and high-speed rail integration service: A case study of Beijing-Guangzhou corridor, China

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Zhi-Chun
  • Sheng, Dian

Abstract

This paper investigates the mode choice behavior of inter-city passengers among air transport, high-speed rail (HSR), and air and high-speed rail (AH) integration services. Stated preference survey has been conducted for four typical city pairs that are located in the Beijing-Guangzhou corridor, China. Modal split models are proposed and calibrated based on the collected survey data. The proposed models are used to identify the key factors affecting passengers’ mode choices and to estimate the modal split of passenger travel demand for some inter-city transportation markets of China. Sensitivity analyses are also performed to reveal the market potential of the AH integration service in China. It has been found: (i) when the inter-city travel distance exceeds a threshold, passengers become less sensitive to the connection time of the AH service, (ii) the most competitive haul distance for the AH service is between 1200km and 1600km, and (iii) the en route travel time is the most important factor affecting the market share of the AH service.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zhi-Chun & Sheng, Dian, 2016. "Forecasting passenger travel demand for air and high-speed rail integration service: A case study of Beijing-Guangzhou corridor, China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 397-410.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:397-410
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.10.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856415303141
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiambaretto, Paul & Decker, Christopher, 2012. "Air–rail intermodal agreements: Balancing the competition and environmental effects," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 36-40.
    2. Xiaowen Fu & Tae H. Oum & Jia Yan, 2014. "An Analysis of Travel Demand in Japan's Intercity Market Empirical Estimation and Policy Simulation," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(1), pages 97-113, January.
    3. Chiambaretto, Paul & Baudelaire, Clément & Lavril, Thibaut, 2013. "Measuring the willingness-to-pay of air-rail intermodal passengers," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 50-54.
    4. Sheng, Dian & Li, Zhi-Chun & Xiao, Yi-bin & Fu, Xiaowen, 2015. "Slot auction in an airport network with demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 79-100.
    5. Debrezion, Ghebreegziabiher & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2009. "Modelling the joint access mode and railway station choice," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 270-283, January.
    6. Román, Concepción & Espino, Raquel & Martín, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Competition of high-speed train with air transport: The case of Madrid–Barcelona," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 277-284.
    7. Flügel, Stefan & Halse, Askill H. & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios & Rizzi, Luis I., 2015. "Methodological challenges in modelling the choice of mode for a new travel alternative using binary stated choice data – The case of high speed rail in Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 438-451.
    8. Jiang, Changmin & Zhang, Anming, 2014. "Effects of high-speed rail and airline cooperation under hub airport capacity constraint," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 33-49.
    9. Adler, Nicole & Pels, Eric & Nash, Chris, 2010. "High-speed rail and air transport competition: Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 812-833, August.
    10. Yao, Enjian & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2005. "A study of on integrated intercity travel demand model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 367-381, May.
    11. Yang, Hangjun & Zhang, Anming, 2012. "Effects of high-speed rail and air transport competition on prices, profits and welfare," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1322-1333.
    12. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Willingness to pay for travel time reliability in passenger transport: A review and some new empirical evidence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 384-403, May.
    13. Hess, Stephane & Adler, Thomas & Polak, John W., 2007. "Modelling airport and airline choice behaviour with the use of stated preference survey data," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 221-233, May.
    14. Zhang, Qiong & Yang, Hangjun & Wang, Qiang & Zhang, Anming, 2014. "Market power and its determinants in the Chinese airline industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-13.
    15. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    16. David Hensher & William Greene, 2003. "The Mixed Logit model: The state of practice," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-176, May.
    17. Douglas, George W & Miller, James C, III, 1974. "Quality Competition, Industry Equilibrium, and Efficiency in the Price-Constrained Airline Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(4), pages 657-669, September.
    18. Hensher, David A. & Greene, William H. & Li, Zheng, 2011. "Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 954-972, August.
    19. Rajesh Paleti & Peter Vovsha & Danny Givon & Yehoshua Birotker, 2015. "Impact of individual daily travel pattern on value of time," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 1003-1017, November.
    20. Fu, Xiaowen & Zhang, Anming & Lei, Zheng, 2012. "Will China’s airline industry survive the entry of high-speed rail?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 13-25.
    21. Socorro, M. Pilar & Viecens, M. Fernanda, 2013. "The effects of airline and high speed train integration," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 160-177.
    22. Yuanqing Wang & Lei Li & Li Wang & Adrian Moore & Samuel Staley & Zongzhi Li, 2014. "Modeling traveler mode choice behavior of a new high-speed rail corridor in China," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 466-483, July.
    23. Li, Zhi-Chun & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C. & Fu, Xiaowen, 2010. "Optimal route allocation in a liberalizing airline market," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 886-902, August.
    24. Givoni, Moshe & Banister, David, 2006. "Airline and railway integration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 386-397, September.
    25. Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng & Wang, Kun & Yan, Jia, 2015. "Low cost carrier competition and route entry in an emerging but regulated aviation market – The case of China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 3-16.
    26. Hess, Stephane & Polak, John W., 2005. "Mixed logit modelling of airport choice in multi-airport regions," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 59-68.
    27. Román, Concepción & Martín, Juan Carlos, 2014. "Integration of HSR and air transport: Understanding passengers’ preferences," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 129-141.
    28. Park, Yonghwa & Ha, Hun-Koo, 2006. "Analysis of the impact of high-speed railroad service on air transport demand," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 95-104, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jaitra:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:99-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:transa:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:105-120 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:397-410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.