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Some comments on origin-destination matrix estimation

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  • Hazelton, Martin L.

Abstract

Estimation of origin-destination (O-D) matrices from link count data is considered. This problem is challenging because the number of parameters to be estimated is typically larger than the number of network links. As a result, it is (usually) impossible to identify a unique optimal estimate of the O-D matrix from mean link traffic counts. However, information from the covariance matrix of link count data collected over a sequence of days can relieve this problem of indeterminacy. This fact is illustrated through a simple example. The use of second-order statistical properties of the data in O-D matrix estimation is then explored, and a class of estimators proposed. Practical problems of model mis-specification are discussed and some avenues for future research outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Hazelton, Martin L., 2003. "Some comments on origin-destination matrix estimation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 811-822, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:37:y:2003:i:10:p:811-822
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    Cited by:

    1. Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira-Neto & Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro & Luis Eduardo Carvalho, 2020. "A Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Model for the Estimation of day-to-day Origin-destination Flows in Transportation Networks," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 499-527, June.
    2. Barroso, Joana Maia Fernandes & Albuquerque-Oliveira, João Lucas & Oliveira-Neto, Francisco Moraes, 2020. "Correlation analysis of day-to-day origin-destination flows and traffic volumes in urban networks," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Hazelton, Martin L., 2008. "Statistical inference for time varying origin-destination matrices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 542-552, July.
    4. Yang, Yudi & Fan, Yueyue & Royset, Johannes O., 2019. "Estimating probability distributions of travel demand on a congested network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 265-286.
    5. Flurin S. Hänseler & Nicholas A. Molyneaux & Michel Bierlaire, 2017. "Estimation of Pedestrian Origin-Destination Demand in Train Stations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 981-997, August.
    6. Enrique Castillo & Pilar Jiménez & José Menéndez & María Nogal, 2013. "A Bayesian method for estimating traffic flows based on plate scanning," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 173-201, January.
    7. Wu, Zhiyou & Tian, Jing & Quan, Jing & Ugon, Julien, 2014. "Optimality conditions and optimization methods for quartic polynomial optimization," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 968-982.
    8. Yang, Yudi & Fan, Yueyue & Wets, Roger J.B., 2018. "Stochastic travel demand estimation: Improving network identifiability using multi-day observation sets," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 192-211.
    9. Yang, Yudi & Fan, Yueyue, 2015. "Data dependent input control for origin–destination demand estimation using observability analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 385-403.
    10. Hazelton, Martin L., 2010. "Bayesian inference for network-based models with a linear inverse structure," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 674-685, June.
    11. Shao, Hu & Lam, William H.K. & Sumalee, Agachai & Chen, Anthony & Hazelton, Martin L., 2014. "Estimation of mean and covariance of peak hour origin–destination demands from day-to-day traffic counts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 52-75.
    12. Simonelli, Fulvio & Marzano, Vittorio & Papola, Andrea & Vitiello, Iolanda, 2012. "A network sensor location procedure accounting for o–d matrix estimate variability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1624-1638.

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