Prediction model of bus passenger tolerable waiting time

This article uses survival analysis to model and predict passengers’ tolerance for bus waiting times. It first defines and analyzes what constitutes tolerable waiting time. A Weibull distribution-based parametric model is then developed, incorporating various influencing factors. The findings show that passengers at terminal stations tolerate longer waiting times compared to those at intermediate stops. For passengers at intermediate stops, the probability of tolerating waiting times longer than 10 min is over 80% but drops below 50% for times exceeding 15 min. Median tolerance is 15 min for those with alternative routes and 20 min for those without. Tolerance is positively correlated with average weekly bus usage, and current trip duration. As waiting times increase, passengers are more likely to abandon their wait.