Dependence or preference? Navigating public transit loyalty across heterogeneous levels of transit dependence

The remarkable decline in transit ridership in recent years, further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, has compelled transit agencies to enhance rider satisfaction to retain transit users. However, the adoption of general policies may be ineffective due to the heterogeneous nature of user perceptions that shape transit loyalty. Specifically, service quality factors might vary markedly among captive riders and those who prefer to use transit, including choice riders and voluntary riders. In this study, we investigated the transit dependence-based segmentation in the analysis of transit satisfaction and loyalty. Employing survey data from Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) riders collected in 2022, we aimed to: (1) examine the significance of heterogeneity in transit satisfaction and loyalty across captive, choice, and voluntary riders, and (2) assess the implications of overall approach versus dependence-based segmentation approach. We developed a Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) and conducted Permutation Multi-group Analysis (PMGA) to assess the hypothesized heterogeneity among three rider groups. Additionally, we introduced Importance-Performance Deviation Index (IPDI) to rank the service quality aspects for improvement policies specific to each group. The proposed metric highlights the variations of prioritized factors for improvement across rider groups. Our analysis reveals that while cleanliness is the most unsatisfactory aspect for all rider groups, choice riders exhibit more dissatisfaction with cleanliness. Further, reliability, particularly in terms of waiting times and service arrivals, does not meet voluntary riders’ expectations. Moreover, comfort factors are critically unsatisfactory for captive riders, especially at stations and in-vehicle, compared to other two rider groups. These findings showcase the ramifications of adopting general policies instead of group-specific strategies. The study provides transit agencies with actionable insights to develop informed and targeted retention strategies, ultimately enhancing transit users’ satisfaction and loyalty.