IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v146y2019icp733-750.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Innovation pathways in additive manufacturing: Methods for tracing emerging and branching paths from rapid prototyping to alternative applications

Author

Listed:
  • Robinson, Douglas K.R.
  • Lagnau, Axel
  • Boon, Wouter P.C.

Abstract

In recent years, the Forecasting Innovation Pathway approach (FIP) has shown to be a promising set of tools to capture potential developments in emerging fields through capturing indications of endogenous futures. However, the FIP approach is reliant on a clear demarcated area to study, a challenge for emerging technology fields where uncertainty and rhetoric abound. This paper presents an addition to the FIP toolbox that helps characterise and demarcate boundaries of emerging fields to allow for deeper analysis through other FIP methods. We illustrate this approach through an exercise for 3D printing technology (also known as Additive Manufacturing). We show that 3D printing can be represented by a dominant design: a tri-partite configuration of printer, material and digital design software. In the past decade we have seen significant branching from applications in rapid-prototyping to medical, fashion, aeronautics and supply chain management with a variety of elements coming together in tri-partite configurations. The paper adds to the current FTA literature an approach building on evolutionary theories of technical change to help with such situations – emerging, evolving and branching ‘innovation pathways’. Moreover, we developed a methodology to construct these innovation paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Lagnau, Axel & Boon, Wouter P.C., 2019. "Innovation pathways in additive manufacturing: Methods for tracing emerging and branching paths from rapid prototyping to alternative applications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 733-750.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:146:y:2019:i:c:p:733-750
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.07.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518301720
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.07.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Huang, Lu & Guo, Ying & Porter, Alan L., 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 267-285.
    2. Michael Potstada & Alireza Parandian & Douglas K. R. Robinson & Jan Zybura, 2016. "An alignment approach for an industry in the making: DIGINOVA and the case of digital fabrication," Post-Print hal-01276908, HAL.
    3. Kaplan, Sarah & Tripsas, Mary, 2008. "Thinking about technology: Applying a cognitive lens to technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 790-805, June.
    4. Thrane, Sof & Blaabjerg, Steen & Møller, Rasmus Hannemann, 2010. "Innovative path dependence: Making sense of product and service innovation in path dependent innovation processes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 932-944, September.
    5. Giovanni Dosi & Richard Nelson, 2013. "The Evolution of Technologies: An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(1), pages 3-46, June.
    6. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-337, May.
    7. Garud, Raghu & Karnoe, Peter, 2003. "Bricolage versus breakthrough: distributed and embedded agency in technology entrepreneurship," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 277-300, February.
    8. Glyn Elwyn & Alex R. Hardisty & Susan C. Pierce & Carl May & Robert Evans & Douglas K. R. Robinson & Charlotte E. Bolton & Zaheer R. Yousef & Edward Clarke Conley & Omer F. Rana & W. Alex Grey & Alun , 2012. "Detecting deterioration in patients with chronic disease using telemonitoring: navigating the 'trough of disillusionment'," Post-Print hal-00794442, HAL.
    9. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    10. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Lu Huang & Yan Guo & Alan L. Porter, 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Post-Print hal-01070417, HAL.
    11. Moors, Ellen H.M. & Kukk Fischer, Piret & Boon, Wouter P.C. & Schellen, Frank & Negro, Simona O., 2018. "Institutionalisation of markets: The case of personalised cancer medicine in the Netherlands," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 133-143.
    12. Andrea Bonaccorsi & Paola Giuri & Francesca Pierotti, 2005. "Technological frontiers and competition in multi-technology sectors," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1-2), pages 23-42.
    13. Potstada, Michael & Parandian, Alireza & Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Zybura, Jan, 2016. "An alignment approach for an industry in the making: DIGINOVA and the case of digital fabrication," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 182-192.
    14. ., 1998. "Technological Change," Chapters, in: Heinz D. Kurz & Neri Salvadori (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Classical Economics, volume 0, chapter 127, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. D.K. Robinson & Lu Huang & Ying Guo & Alan L. Porter, 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Post-Print hal-01071140, HAL.
    16. Zhang, Yi & Porter, Alan L. & Hu, Zhengyin & Guo, Ying & Newman, Nils C., 2014. "“Term clumping” for technical intelligence: A case study on dye-sensitized solar cells," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 26-39.
    17. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Marine Agogué & Pascal Le Masson, 2012. "Orphan innovation, or when path-creation goes stale: a design framework to characterise path-dependence in real time," Post-Print hal-00794429, HAL.
    18. Marine Agogué & Pascal Le Masson & Douglas K. Robinson, 2012. "Orphan innovation, or when path-creation goes stale: a design framework to characterize path-dependence in real time," Post-Print hal-00707372, HAL.
    19. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00707372 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Chen, Yu-Long & Kumar, Vimal & Daim, Tugrul & Verma, Pratima & Kao, Fang-Chen & Liu, Ruirong, 2023. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of E-payment technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    2. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Schoen, Antoine & Larédo, Philippe & Gallart, Jordi Molas & Warnke, Philine & Kuhlmann, Stefan & Ordóñez-Matamoros, Gonzalo, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Antoine Schoen & Philippe Larédo & Jordi Molas Gallart & Philine Warnke & Stefan Kuhlmann & Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Post-Print hal-03232913, HAL.
    4. Christopher W. H. Davis & Antonie J. Jetter & Philippe J. Giabbanelli, 2022. "Automatically Generating Scenarios from a Text Corpus: A Case Study on Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Berns, John P. & Jia, Yankun & Gondo, Maria, 2022. "Crowdfunding success in sustainability-oriented projects: An exploratory examination of the crowdfunding of 3D printers," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Marić, Josip & Opazo-Basáez, Marco & Vlačić, Božidar & Dabić, Marina, 2023. "Innovation management of three-dimensional printing (3DP) technology: Disclosing insights from existing literature and determining future research streams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    7. Zhou, Yong & Yang, Qijin & Lu, Shuo, 2023. "Research on the identification and formation mechanism of the main path of digital technology diffusion: Empirical evidence from China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Chatterjee, Sheshadri & Chaudhuri, Ranjan & Vrontis, Demetris & Thrassou, Alkis, 2022. "SME entrepreneurship and digitalization – the potentialities and moderating role of demographic factors," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    9. Xu, Shuo & Hao, Liyuan & Yang, Guancan & Lu, Kun & An, Xin, 2021. "A topic models based framework for detecting and forecasting emerging technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marine Agogué & Pascal Le Masson, 2015. "Rethinking ideation: a cognitive approach of innovation lock-ins," Post-Print hal-01132377, HAL.
    2. Susana Martins Moretto & António Brandão Moniz & Douglas Robinson, 2015. "Visions on high-speed trains: a methodological analysis," IET Working Papers Series 05/2015, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology.
    3. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Chen, Yu-Long & Kumar, Vimal & Daim, Tugrul & Verma, Pratima & Kao, Fang-Chen & Liu, Ruirong, 2023. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of E-payment technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    4. Marine Agogué & Pascal Le Masson & Douglas K. Robinson, 2012. "Orphan innovation, or when path-creation goes stale: a design framework to characterize path-dependence in real time," Post-Print hal-00707372, HAL.
    5. Zhang, Yi & Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Porter, Alan L. & Zhu, Donghua & Zhang, Guangquan & Lu, Jie, 2016. "Technology roadmapping for competitive technical intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 175-186.
    6. Wang, Lili & Jiang, Shan & Zhang, Shiyun, 2020. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of 3D printing technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    7. Coccia, Mario & Wang, Lili, 2015. "Path-breaking directions of nanotechnology-based chemotherapy and molecular cancer therapy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 155-169.
    8. Zhang, Yi & Zhang, Guangquan & Chen, Hongshu & Porter, Alan L. & Zhu, Donghua & Lu, Jie, 2016. "Topic analysis and forecasting for science, technology and innovation: Methodology with a case study focusing on big data research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 179-191.
    9. Thrane, Sof & Blaabjerg, Steen & Møller, Rasmus Hannemann, 2010. "Innovative path dependence: Making sense of product and service innovation in path dependent innovation processes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 932-944, September.
    10. Foxon, Timothy J., 2011. "A coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2258-2267.
    11. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Bhatt, Priyanka C. & Kumar, Vimal & Chen, Hsueh-Chen & Chang, Yu-Hsin & Su, Fang-Pei, 2021. "Identifying the impact of patent family on the patent trajectory: A case of thin film solar cells technological trajectories," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    12. Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Yi & Lian, Xiangpeng & Guo, Ying, 2019. "An assessment of technology forecasting: Revisiting earlier analyses on dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 831-843.
    13. Li, Munan & Porter, Alan L. & Suominen, Arho, 2018. "Insights into relationships between disruptive technology/innovation and emerging technology: A bibliometric perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 285-296.
    14. Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Cunningham, Scott W. & Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Liu, Jianhua & Zhu, Donghua, 2018. "A technology delivery system for characterizing the supply side of technology emergence: Illustrated for Big Data & Analytics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 165-176.
    15. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00707372 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Garud, Raghu & Gehman, Joel, 2012. "Metatheoretical perspectives on sustainability journeys: Evolutionary, relational and durational," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 980-995.
    17. Zhu, Lin & Cunningham, Scott W., 2022. "Unveiling the knowledge structure of technological forecasting and social change (1969–2020) through an NMF-based hierarchical topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    18. Potstada, Michael & Parandian, Alireza & Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Zybura, Jan, 2016. "An alignment approach for an industry in the making: DIGINOVA and the case of digital fabrication," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 182-192.
    19. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00825289 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco, 2022. "Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    21. Gibson, Elizabeth & Daim, Tugrul U. & Dabic, Marina, 2019. "Evaluating university industry collaborative research centers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 181-202.
    22. Giovanni Dosi & Richard Nelson, 2013. "The Evolution of Technologies: An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(1), pages 3-46, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:146:y:2019:i:c:p:733-750. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.