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Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Robinson, Douglas K.R.
  • Huang, Lu
  • Guo, Ying
  • Porter, Alan L.

Abstract

“New” and “Emerging Science” and “Technologies” (“NESTs”) have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways. We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses (“FTA”) experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensor experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases. We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, for its intended goal, that is to support decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Huang, Lu & Guo, Ying & Porter, Alan L., 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 267-285.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:2:p:267-285
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Coccia, Mario & Wang, Lili, 2015. "Path-breaking directions of nanotechnology-based chemotherapy and molecular cancer therapy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 155-169.
    2. repec:eee:tefoso:v:129:y:2018:i:c:p:285-296 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Breitzman, Anthony & Thomas, Patrick, 2015. "The Emerging Clusters Model: A tool for identifying emerging technologies across multiple patent systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 195-205.
    4. Zhang, Yi & Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Porter, Alan L. & Zhu, Donghua & Zhang, Guangquan & Lu, Jie, 2016. "Technology roadmapping for competitive technical intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 175-186.
    5. repec:eee:tefoso:v:130:y:2018:i:c:p:165-176 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spr:scient:v:102:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-014-1392-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kokshagina, Olga & Gillier, Thomas & Cogez, Patrick & Le Masson, Pascal & Weil, Benoit, 2017. "Using innovation contests to promote the development of generic technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 152-164.
    8. Wang, Ming-Yeu & Fang, Shih-Chieh & Chang, Yu-Hsuan, 2015. "Exploring technological opportunities by mining the gaps between science and technology: Microalgal biofuels," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 182-195.
    9. Zhang, Yi & Zhang, Guangquan & Chen, Hongshu & Porter, Alan L. & Zhu, Donghua & Lu, Jie, 2016. "Topic analysis and forecasting for science, technology and innovation: Methodology with a case study focusing on big data research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 179-191.
    10. repec:spr:scient:v:111:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11192-017-2319-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Arora, Sanjay K. & Foley, Rider W. & Youtie, Jan & Shapira, Philip & Wiek, Arnim, 2014. "Drivers of technology adoption — the case of nanomaterials in building construction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 232-244.
    12. Jun, Seung-Pyo & Park, Do-Hyung, 2016. "Consumer information search behavior and purchasing decisions: Empirical evidence from Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 97-111.
    13. repec:eee:tefoso:v:138:y:2019:i:c:p:324-339 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kauffman, Robert J. & Liu, Jun & Ma, Dan, 2015. "Innovations in financial IS and technology ecosystems: High-frequency trading in the equity market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 339-354.
    15. repec:spr:infosf:v:16:y:2014:i:3:d:10.1007_s10796-013-9479-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Cheng, Yu & Huang, Lucheng & Ramlogan, Ronnie & Li, Xin, 2017. "Forecasting of potential impacts of disruptive technology in promising technological areas: Elaborating the SIRS epidemic model in RFID technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-183.

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