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Information criterion for Gaussian change-point model

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  • Ninomiya, Yoshiyuki

Abstract

AIC-type information criterion is generally estimated by the bias-corrected maximum log-likelihood. In regular models, the bias can be estimated by p, where p is the number of parameters. The present paper considers the AIC-type information criterion for change-point models which are not regular, the bias of which will not be the same as for regular models. The bias is shown to depend on the expected maximum of a random walk with negative drift. Furthermore, it is shown that by using an approximation to a Brownian motion, the evaluated bias is given by 3m+pm (not m+pm), where m is the number of change-points and pm is the number of regular parameters, which differs from regular models.

Suggested Citation

  • Ninomiya, Yoshiyuki, 2005. "Information criterion for Gaussian change-point model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 237-247, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:72:y:2005:i:3:p:237-247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
    2. Stryhn, Henrik, 1996. "The location of the maximum of asymmetric two-sided Brownian motion with triangular drift," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 279-284, September.
    3. Lee, Chung-Bow, 1995. "Estimating the number of change points in a sequence of independent normal random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 241-248, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shen, Gang, 2013. "On empirical likelihood inference of a change-point," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(7), pages 1662-1668.
    2. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2015. "Structural Break Inference Using Information Criteria in Models Estimated by Two-Stage Least Squares," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 741-762, September.
    3. Erhard Reschenhofer & David Preinerstorfer & Lukas Steinberger, 2013. "Non-monotonic penalizing for the number of structural breaks," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 2585-2598, December.
    4. Kurozumi, Eiji & Tuvaandorj, Purevdorj, 2011. "Model selection criteria in multivariate models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 218-238, October.
    5. Chulwoo Han & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2017. "Partial Structural Break Identification," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(2), pages 145-164, April.
    6. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2013. "Inference on Structural Breaks using Information Criteria," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 54-81, October.
    7. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2017. "The asymptotic behaviour of the residual sum of squares in models with multiple break points," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 667-698, October.
    8. Yoshiyuki Ninomiya, 2015. "Change-point model selection via AIC," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 67(5), pages 943-961, October.
    9. Yoshiyuki Ninomiya & Atsushi Yoshimoto, 2008. "Statistical Method for Detecting Structural Change in the Growth Process," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 46-53, March.
    10. Pan, Jianmin & Chen, Jiahua, 2006. "Application of modified information criterion to multiple change point problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(10), pages 2221-2241, November.

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