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Estimation for the change point of volatility in a stochastic differential equation

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  • Iacus, Stefano M.
  • Yoshida, Nakahiro

Abstract

We consider a multidimensional Itô process Y=(Yt)t∈[0,T] with some unknown drift coefficient process bt and volatility coefficient σ(Xt,θ) with covariate process X=(Xt)t∈[0,T], the function σ(x,θ) being known up to θ∈Θ. For this model, we consider a change point problem for the parameter θ in the volatility component. The change is supposed to occur at some point t∗∈(0,T). Given discrete time observations from the process (X,Y), we propose quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of the change point. We present the rate of convergence of the change point estimator and the limit theorems of the asymptotically mixed type.

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  • Iacus, Stefano M. & Yoshida, Nakahiro, 2012. "Estimation for the change point of volatility in a stochastic differential equation," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 1068-1092.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:122:y:2012:i:3:p:1068-1092
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2011.11.005
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    7. Stefano M. Iacus & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2010. "Numerical Analysis of Volatility Change Point Estimators for Discretely Sampled Stochastic Differential Equations," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 39(1‐2), pages 107-127, February.
    8. Sangyeol Lee & Yoichi Nishiyama & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2006. "Test for Parameter Change in Diffusion Processes by Cusum Statistics Based on One-step Estimators," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 58(2), pages 211-222, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandra Micheletti & Giacomo Aletti & Giulia Ferrandi & Danilo Bertoni & Daniele Cavicchioli & Roberto Pretolani, 2020. "A weighted $$\chi ^2$$ χ 2 test to detect the presence of a major change point in non-stationary Markov chains," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(4), pages 899-912, December.
    2. Yozo Tonaki & Yusuke Kaino & Masayuki Uchida, 2022. "Adaptive tests for parameter changes in ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 397-430, July.
    3. Yozo Tonaki & Yusuke Kaino & Masayuki Uchida, 2023. "Estimation for change point of discretely observed ergodic diffusion processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 50(1), pages 142-183, March.
    4. Tonaki, Yozo & Uchida, Masayuki, 2023. "Change point inference in ergodic diffusion processes based on high frequency data," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 1-39.
    5. Li, Boyan & Diao, Xundi, 2023. "Structural break in different stock index markets in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Stefano M. Iacus & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2010. "Numerical Analysis of Volatility Change Point Estimators for Discretely Sampled Stochastic Differential Equations," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 39(1‐2), pages 107-127, February.
    7. A. Gregorio & S. M. Iacus, 2019. "Empirical $$L^2$$ L 2 -distance test statistics for ergodic diffusions," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 233-261, July.
    8. Fuqi Chen & Rogemar Mamon & Sévérien Nkurunziza, 2018. "Inference for a change-point problem under a generalised Ornstein–Uhlenbeck setting," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 70(4), pages 807-853, August.
    9. Markus Bibinger & Moritz Jirak & Mathias Vetter, 2015. "Nonparametric change-point analysis of volatility," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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